Howard Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HBMD -  USA Stock  

USD 23.30  0.00  0.00%

Howard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Howard Bancorp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Howard Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Howard Bancorp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Howard Bancorp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Howard Bancorp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Howard Bancorp fundamentals over time.
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The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 2.24. The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 1.05. Howard Bancorp Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 16.89 Million.
Most investors in Howard Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Howard Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Howard Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Howard Bancorp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Howard Bancorp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Howard Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of May 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Howard Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 22.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.90. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Howard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Howard Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Howard Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Howard Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Howard Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3904
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3426
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0155
SAESum of the absolute errors20.8992
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Howard Bancorp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Howard Bancorp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Howard Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Howard Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Howard Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Howard Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.3023.3023.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.7921.7925.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
19.9622.7825.60
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0024.0028.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Howard Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Howard Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Howard Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Howard Bancorp.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Howard Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Howard Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Howard Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Howard Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Howard Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Howard Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Howard Bancorp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Howard Bancorp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Risk vs Return Analysis. Note that the Howard Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Howard Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Other Tools for Howard Stock

When running Howard Bancorp price analysis, check to measure Howard Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Howard Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Howard Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Howard Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Howard Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Howard Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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