Hudbay Minerals Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

HBM
 Stock
  

USD 5.85  0.20  3.54%   

Hudbay Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hudbay Minerals historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hudbay Minerals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hudbay Minerals historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hudbay Minerals naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Hudbay Minerals systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hudbay Minerals fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hudbay Minerals to cross-verify your projections.
  
The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to pull down to 0.32. Weighted Average Shares is expected to hike to about 268.1 M this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 268.2 M this year.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Hudbay Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hudbay Minerals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Hudbay Minerals' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Hudbay Minerals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hudbay Minerals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hudbay Minerals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hudbay Minerals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hudbay. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hudbay Minerals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hudbay Minerals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hudbay Minerals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Hudbay Minerals price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Hudbay Minerals Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Hudbay Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 5.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hudbay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hudbay Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hudbay Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hudbay Minerals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hudbay Minerals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hudbay Minerals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.39 and 10.11, respectively. We have considered Hudbay Minerals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 5.85
5.25
Expected Value
10.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hudbay Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hudbay Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.58
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4026
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0926
SAESum of the absolute errors24.5596
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Hudbay Minerals historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Hudbay Minerals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hudbay Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hudbay Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hudbay Minerals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.075.9310.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.996.8511.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.555.755.94
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.2010.3712.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hudbay Minerals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hudbay Minerals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hudbay Minerals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hudbay Minerals.

Other Forecasting Options for Hudbay Minerals

For every potential investor in Hudbay, whether a beginner or expert, Hudbay Minerals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hudbay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hudbay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hudbay Minerals' price trends.

Hudbay Minerals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hudbay Minerals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hudbay Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hudbay Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Walt DisneyZIM Integrated ShippingAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hudbay Minerals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hudbay Minerals' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hudbay Minerals' current price.

Hudbay Minerals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hudbay Minerals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hudbay Minerals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hudbay Minerals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hudbay Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hudbay Minerals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hudbay Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hudbay Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hudbay Minerals stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Hudbay Minerals Investors Sentiment

The influence of Hudbay Minerals' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hudbay. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hudbay Minerals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Hudbay. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hudbay can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hudbay Minerals. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hudbay Minerals' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hudbay Minerals' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hudbay Minerals' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hudbay Minerals.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hudbay Minerals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hudbay Minerals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hudbay Minerals options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Hudbay Minerals using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hudbay Minerals to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hudbay Minerals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hudbay Minerals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for Hudbay Stock analysis

When running Hudbay Minerals price analysis, check to measure Hudbay Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hudbay Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Hudbay Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hudbay Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hudbay Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hudbay Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hudbay Minerals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hudbay Minerals. If investors know Hudbay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hudbay Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
1.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.036) 
Return On Assets
0.0439
Return On Equity
0.0506
The market value of Hudbay Minerals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hudbay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hudbay Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hudbay Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hudbay Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hudbay Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hudbay Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hudbay Minerals value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hudbay Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.