Hudbay Minerals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HBM
 Stock
  

USD 5.34  0.16  2.91%   

Hudbay Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hudbay Minerals historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hudbay Minerals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hudbay Minerals historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hudbay Minerals naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Hudbay Minerals systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hudbay Minerals fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hudbay Minerals to cross-verify your projections.
  
The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to pull down to 0.32. Weighted Average Shares is expected to hike to about 268.1 M this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 268.2 M this year.
Most investors in Hudbay Minerals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hudbay Minerals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hudbay Minerals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hudbay Minerals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hudbay Minerals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hudbay Minerals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hudbay Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 5.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hudbay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hudbay Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hudbay Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hudbay MineralsHudbay Minerals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hudbay Minerals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hudbay Minerals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hudbay Minerals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.27 and 9.96, respectively. We have considered Hudbay Minerals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 5.34
5.11
Expected Value
9.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hudbay Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hudbay Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1711
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1857
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0414
SAESum of the absolute errors11.3284
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hudbay Minerals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hudbay Minerals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hudbay Minerals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hudbay Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hudbay Minerals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hudbay Minerals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.485.3210.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.686.5211.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.695.356.01
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.2010.3712.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hudbay Minerals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hudbay Minerals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hudbay Minerals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hudbay Minerals.

Other Forecasting Options for Hudbay Minerals

For every potential investor in Hudbay, whether a beginner or expert, Hudbay Minerals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hudbay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hudbay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hudbay Minerals' price trends.

Hudbay Minerals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hudbay Minerals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hudbay Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hudbay Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alcoa CorpPfizer IncThe Travelers CompaniesCaterpillarMerck CompanyCisco SystemsExxon Mobil CorpJPMorgan ChaseHome DepotAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hudbay Minerals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hudbay Minerals' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hudbay Minerals' current price.

Hudbay Minerals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hudbay Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hudbay Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hudbay Minerals stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hudbay Minerals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hudbay Minerals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hudbay Minerals options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hudbay Minerals to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hudbay Minerals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hudbay Minerals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Hudbay Minerals price analysis, check to measure Hudbay Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hudbay Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Hudbay Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hudbay Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hudbay Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hudbay Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hudbay Minerals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hudbay Minerals. If investors know Hudbay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hudbay Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Hudbay Minerals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hudbay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hudbay Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hudbay Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hudbay Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hudbay Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hudbay Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hudbay Minerals value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hudbay Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.