Halliburton Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

HAL
 Stock
  

USD 30.95  0.91  3.03%   

Halliburton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Halliburton historical stock prices and determine the direction of Halliburton's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Halliburton historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Halliburton naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Halliburton systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Halliburton fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Halliburton to cross-verify your projections.
  
Refresh
Halliburton Cash and Equivalents Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cash and Equivalents Turnover is estimated at 7.95. Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 0.75 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 3.41. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to hike to about 85.2 M this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares will most likely fall to nearly 840.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-01 Halliburton Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Halliburton's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Halliburton's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Halliburton stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Halliburton's open interest, investors have to compare it to Halliburton's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Halliburton is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Halliburton. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Halliburton cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Halliburton's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Halliburton's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Halliburton works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Halliburton Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Halliburton on the next trading day is expected to be 30.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09, mean absolute percentage error of 1.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.52. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Halliburton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Halliburton's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Halliburton Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest HalliburtonHalliburton Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Halliburton Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Halliburton's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Halliburton's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.08 and 33.87, respectively. We have considered Halliburton's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 30.95
30.48
Expected Value
33.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Halliburton stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Halliburton stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0442
MADMean absolute deviation1.0935
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0298
SAESum of the absolute errors64.5168
When Halliburton prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Halliburton trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Halliburton observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Halliburton

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Halliburton. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Halliburton's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Halliburton in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
27.5330.9334.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
26.1729.5732.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
33.6637.4441.22
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.2029.1436.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Halliburton. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Halliburton's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Halliburton's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Halliburton.

Other Forecasting Options for Halliburton

For every potential investor in Halliburton, whether a beginner or expert, Halliburton's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Halliburton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Halliburton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Halliburton's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Halliburton stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Halliburton could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Halliburton by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Halliburton Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Halliburton's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Halliburton's current price.

Halliburton Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Halliburton stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Halliburton shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Halliburton stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Halliburton entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Halliburton Risk Indicators

The analysis of Halliburton's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Halliburton's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Halliburton stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Halliburton Investors Sentiment

The influence of Halliburton's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Halliburton. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Halliburton Implied Volatility

    
  73.39  
Halliburton's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Halliburton stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Halliburton's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Halliburton stock will not fluctuate a lot when Halliburton's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Halliburton in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Halliburton's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Halliburton options trading.

Current Sentiment - HAL

Halliburton Investor Sentiment

Predominant part of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Halliburton. What is your judgment towards investing in Halliburton? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Halliburton using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Halliburton to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Halliburton information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Halliburton's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Halliburton Stock analysis

When running Halliburton price analysis, check to measure Halliburton's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Halliburton is operating at the current time. Most of Halliburton's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Halliburton's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Halliburton's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Halliburton to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Fund Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Is Halliburton's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Halliburton. If investors know Halliburton will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Halliburton listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Halliburton is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Halliburton that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Halliburton's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Halliburton's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Halliburton's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Halliburton's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Halliburton's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Halliburton value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Halliburton's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.