Genuine Parts Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

GPC
 Stock
  

USD 148.64  0.49  0.33%   

Genuine Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genuine Parts historical stock prices and determine the direction of Genuine Parts's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Genuine Parts historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genuine Parts to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Genuine Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genuine Parts' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Genuine Parts' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Genuine Parts stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genuine Parts' open interest, investors have to compare it to Genuine Parts' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genuine Parts is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genuine. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Genuine Parts cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Genuine Parts' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Genuine Parts' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Genuine Parts is based on a synthetically constructed Genuine Partsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Genuine Parts 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Genuine Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 156.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.15, mean absolute percentage error of 38.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 211.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genuine Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genuine Parts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genuine Parts Stock Forecast Pattern

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Genuine Parts Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Genuine Parts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genuine Parts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 155.34 and 157.78, respectively. We have considered Genuine Parts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 148.64
155.34
Downside
156.56
Expected Value
157.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genuine Parts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genuine Parts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria85.0119
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -3.1118
MADMean absolute deviation5.153
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0332
SAESum of the absolute errors211.2715
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Genuine Parts 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Genuine Parts

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genuine Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genuine Parts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Genuine Parts in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
148.32149.54150.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
134.22158.07159.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
146.51151.84154.51
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
129.00140.57157.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genuine Parts. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genuine Parts' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genuine Parts' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Genuine Parts.

Other Forecasting Options for Genuine Parts

For every potential investor in Genuine, whether a beginner or expert, Genuine Parts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genuine Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genuine. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genuine Parts' price trends.

Genuine Parts Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genuine Parts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genuine Parts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genuine Parts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Clearwater Paper CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genuine Parts Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genuine Parts' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genuine Parts' current price.

Genuine Parts Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genuine Parts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genuine Parts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genuine Parts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genuine Parts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Genuine Parts Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genuine Parts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genuine Parts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Genuine Parts stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Genuine Parts without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genuine Parts to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

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Is Genuine Parts' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genuine Parts. If investors know Genuine will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genuine Parts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Genuine Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genuine that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genuine Parts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genuine Parts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genuine Parts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genuine Parts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genuine Parts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Genuine Parts value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genuine Parts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.