Alphabet Inc Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

GOOGL
 Stock
  

USD 100.44  0.55  0.54%   

Alphabet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alphabet Inc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alphabet Inc Class's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alphabet Inc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Alphabet Inc naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Alphabet Inc Class systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alphabet Inc fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alphabet Inc to cross-verify your projections.
  
Alphabet Inc PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 3.41. Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to hike to 48.75 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 96.10. . The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to pull down to about 11.8 B. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to pull down to about 12.7 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 Alphabet Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alphabet Inc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Alphabet Inc's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Alphabet Inc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alphabet Inc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alphabet Inc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alphabet Inc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alphabet. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alphabet Inc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alphabet Inc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alphabet Inc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Alphabet Inc simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Alphabet Inc Class are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Alphabet Class prices get older.

Alphabet Inc Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alphabet Inc Class on the next trading day is expected to be 100.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.90, mean absolute percentage error of 6.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alphabet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alphabet Inc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alphabet Inc Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alphabet Inc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alphabet Inc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alphabet Inc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.80 and 103.08, respectively. We have considered Alphabet Inc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 100.44
100.44
Expected Value
103.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alphabet Inc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alphabet Inc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1967
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1737
MADMean absolute deviation1.898
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0197
SAESum of the absolute errors113.88
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Alphabet Inc Class forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Alphabet Inc observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Alphabet Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alphabet Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alphabet Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alphabet Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
97.89100.53103.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
90.40877.61880.25
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
2,2003,2113,925
Details
Earnings
Estimates (12)
LowProjected EPSHigh
105.99108.43111.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alphabet Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alphabet Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alphabet Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alphabet Class.

Other Forecasting Options for Alphabet Inc

For every potential investor in Alphabet, whether a beginner or expert, Alphabet Inc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alphabet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alphabet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alphabet Inc's price trends.

Alphabet Inc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alphabet Inc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alphabet Inc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alphabet Inc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
BeachbodyFiverr InternationalAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alphabet Class Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alphabet Inc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alphabet Inc's current price.

Alphabet Inc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alphabet Inc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alphabet Inc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alphabet Inc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alphabet Inc Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alphabet Inc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alphabet Inc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alphabet Inc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alphabet Inc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Alphabet Inc Investors Sentiment

The influence of Alphabet Inc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alphabet. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Alphabet Inc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Alphabet. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alphabet can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alphabet Inc Class. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alphabet Inc's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Alphabet Inc's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Alphabet Inc's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Alphabet Inc.

Alphabet Inc Implied Volatility

    
  29.44  
Alphabet Inc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alphabet Inc Class stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alphabet Inc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alphabet Inc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alphabet Inc's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alphabet Inc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alphabet Inc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alphabet Inc options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alphabet Inc to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alphabet Class information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alphabet Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

Complementary Tools for Alphabet Stock analysis

When running Alphabet Class price analysis, check to measure Alphabet Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alphabet Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Alphabet Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alphabet Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alphabet Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alphabet Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alphabet Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alphabet Inc. If investors know Alphabet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alphabet Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.24) 
Market Capitalization
1301.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.061
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.27
The market value of Alphabet Class is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alphabet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alphabet Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alphabet Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alphabet Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alphabet Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alphabet Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alphabet Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alphabet Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.