Grocery Outlet Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GO
 Stock
  

USD 33.00  0.29  0.87%   

Grocery Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Grocery Outlet historical stock prices and determine the direction of Grocery Outlet Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Grocery Outlet historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grocery Outlet to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Grocery Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Grocery Outlet's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Grocery Outlet's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Grocery Outlet stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Grocery Outlet's open interest, investors have to compare it to Grocery Outlet's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Grocery Outlet is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Grocery. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Grocery Outlet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Grocery Outlet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Grocery Outlet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Grocery Outlet is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Grocery Outlet Holding value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Grocery Outlet Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grocery Outlet Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 33.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grocery Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grocery Outlet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Grocery Outlet Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Grocery OutletGrocery Outlet Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Grocery Outlet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Grocery Outlet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grocery Outlet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.22 and 35.12, respectively. We have considered Grocery Outlet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 33.00
33.17
Expected Value
35.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grocery Outlet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grocery Outlet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7233
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6386
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0156
SAESum of the absolute errors38.9554
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Grocery Outlet Holding. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Grocery Outlet. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Grocery Outlet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grocery Outlet Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grocery Outlet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Grocery Outlet in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.0633.0134.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.3130.2636.62
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
26.0030.2242.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grocery Outlet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grocery Outlet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grocery Outlet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Grocery Outlet Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Grocery Outlet

For every potential investor in Grocery, whether a beginner or expert, Grocery Outlet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grocery Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grocery. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grocery Outlet's price trends.

Grocery Outlet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grocery Outlet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grocery Outlet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grocery Outlet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
The Travelers CompaniesAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Grocery Outlet Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grocery Outlet's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grocery Outlet's current price.

Grocery Outlet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grocery Outlet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grocery Outlet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grocery Outlet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grocery Outlet Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Grocery Outlet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Grocery Outlet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grocery Outlet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Grocery Outlet stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Grocery Outlet in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Grocery Outlet's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Grocery Outlet options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grocery Outlet to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

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When running Grocery Outlet Holding price analysis, check to measure Grocery Outlet's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grocery Outlet is operating at the current time. Most of Grocery Outlet's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grocery Outlet's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grocery Outlet's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grocery Outlet to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Grocery Outlet's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. If investors know Grocery will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grocery Outlet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Grocery Outlet Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grocery that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grocery Outlet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grocery Outlet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grocery Outlet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grocery Outlet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Grocery Outlet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grocery Outlet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.