Greenwich Lifesciences Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

GLSI
 Stock
  

USD 9.98  0.41  3.95%   

Greenwich Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Greenwich Lifesciences historical stock prices and determine the direction of Greenwich Lifesciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Greenwich Lifesciences historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Greenwich Lifesciences naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Greenwich Lifesciences systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Greenwich Lifesciences fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greenwich Lifesciences to cross-verify your projections.
  
Greenwich Lifesciences Shareholders Equity is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Shareholders Equity was reported at 26.83 Million. The current Goodwill and Intangible Assets is estimated to increase to about 14.2 K, while Total Assets are projected to decrease to roughly 22.4 M.
Most investors in Greenwich Lifesciences cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Greenwich Lifesciences' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Greenwich Lifesciences' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Greenwich Lifesciences works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Greenwich Lifesciences Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Greenwich Lifesciences on the next trading day is expected to be 10.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Greenwich Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Greenwich Lifesciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Greenwich Lifesciences Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Greenwich LifesciencesGreenwich Lifesciences Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Greenwich Lifesciences Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Greenwich Lifesciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Greenwich Lifesciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.58 and 18.56, respectively. We have considered Greenwich Lifesciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.98
10.07
Expected Value
18.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Greenwich Lifesciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Greenwich Lifesciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1189
MADMean absolute deviation0.5256
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0588
SAESum of the absolute errors31.0109
When Greenwich Lifesciences prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Greenwich Lifesciences trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Greenwich Lifesciences observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Greenwich Lifesciences

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greenwich Lifesciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Greenwich Lifesciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Greenwich Lifesciences in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.459.8918.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.9826.5434.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7.428.8910.35
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
78.0078.0078.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Greenwich Lifesciences. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Greenwich Lifesciences' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Greenwich Lifesciences' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Greenwich Lifesciences.

Other Forecasting Options for Greenwich Lifesciences

For every potential investor in Greenwich, whether a beginner or expert, Greenwich Lifesciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Greenwich Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Greenwich. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Greenwich Lifesciences' price trends.

Greenwich Lifesciences Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Greenwich Lifesciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Greenwich Lifesciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Greenwich Lifesciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Bed Bath BeyondAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Greenwich Lifesciences Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Greenwich Lifesciences' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Greenwich Lifesciences' current price.

Greenwich Lifesciences Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Greenwich Lifesciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Greenwich Lifesciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Greenwich Lifesciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Greenwich Lifesciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Greenwich Lifesciences Risk Indicators

The analysis of Greenwich Lifesciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Greenwich Lifesciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Greenwich Lifesciences stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Greenwich Lifesciences Investors Sentiment

The influence of Greenwich Lifesciences' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Greenwich. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Greenwich Lifesciences' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Greenwich. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Greenwich can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Greenwich Lifesciences. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Greenwich Lifesciences' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Greenwich Lifesciences' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Greenwich Lifesciences' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Greenwich Lifesciences.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Greenwich Lifesciences in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Greenwich Lifesciences' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Greenwich Lifesciences options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greenwich Lifesciences to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Greenwich Lifesciences information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Greenwich Lifesciences' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Greenwich Lifesciences price analysis, check to measure Greenwich Lifesciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Greenwich Lifesciences is operating at the current time. Most of Greenwich Lifesciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Greenwich Lifesciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Greenwich Lifesciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Greenwich Lifesciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Greenwich Lifesciences' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Greenwich Lifesciences. If investors know Greenwich will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Greenwich Lifesciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
127.6 M
Return On Assets
-0.15
Return On Equity
-0.24
The market value of Greenwich Lifesciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Greenwich that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Greenwich Lifesciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Greenwich Lifesciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Greenwich Lifesciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Greenwich Lifesciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Greenwich Lifesciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Greenwich Lifesciences value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Greenwich Lifesciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.