General Electric Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GE
 Stock
  

USD 86.88  1.62  1.90%   

General Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast General Electric historical stock prices and determine the direction of General Electric's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of General Electric historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although General Electric naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of General Electric systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of General Electric fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of General Electric to cross-verify your projections.
  
General Electric Receivables Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 3.12. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 5.33, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is forecasted to decline to 2.41. . General Electric Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 1.1 Billion.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 General Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast General Electric's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest General Electric's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies General Electric stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current General Electric's open interest, investors have to compare it to General Electric's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of General Electric is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in General. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in General Electric cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the General Electric's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets General Electric's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for General Electric is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of General Electric value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

General Electric Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of General Electric on the next trading day is expected to be 85.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict General Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that General Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

General Electric Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest General ElectricGeneral Electric Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

General Electric Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting General Electric's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. General Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.67 and 87.74, respectively. We have considered General Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 86.88
85.71
Expected Value
87.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of General Electric stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent General Electric stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5285
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9642
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors58.8161
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of General Electric. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict General Electric. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for General Electric

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General Electric. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of General Electric's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of General Electric in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
84.6886.7288.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
78.19106.51108.55
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
55.00117.55140.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.942.012.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as General Electric. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against General Electric's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, General Electric's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in General Electric.

Other Forecasting Options for General Electric

For every potential investor in General, whether a beginner or expert, General Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. General Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in General. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying General Electric's price trends.

General Electric Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with General Electric stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of General Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing General Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Altra HoldingsAmerican SuperconductorSmith AOBallard Power SystemsBabcock Wilcox EnterBroadwind EnergyCapstone Green EnergyCIRCOR InternationalCrane CompanyCSW IndustrialsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEAN
 Risk & Return  Correlation

General Electric Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of General Electric's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of General Electric's current price.

General Electric Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how General Electric stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading General Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying General Electric stock market strength indicators, traders can identify General Electric entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

General Electric Risk Indicators

The analysis of General Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in General Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting General Electric stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

General Electric Investors Sentiment

The influence of General Electric's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in General. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to General Electric's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in General. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding General can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around General Electric. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
General Electric's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for General Electric's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average General Electric's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on General Electric.

General Electric Implied Volatility

    
  21.49  
General Electric's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of General Electric stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if General Electric's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that General Electric stock will not fluctuate a lot when General Electric's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards General Electric in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, General Electric's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from General Electric options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as General Electric using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of General Electric to cross-verify your projections. Note that the General Electric information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other General Electric's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for General Stock analysis

When running General Electric price analysis, check to measure General Electric's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy General Electric is operating at the current time. Most of General Electric's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of General Electric's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move General Electric's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of General Electric to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Is General Electric's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of General Electric. If investors know General will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about General Electric listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
3.95
Market Capitalization
94.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.028
Return On Assets
0.0115
Return On Equity
(0.14) 
The market value of General Electric is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of General that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of General Electric's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is General Electric's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because General Electric's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect General Electric's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between General Electric's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine General Electric value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General Electric's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.