Genpact Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

G
 Stock
  

USD 48.63  0.21  0.43%   

Genpact Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genpact historical stock prices and determine the direction of Genpact's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Genpact historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Genpact naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Genpact systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Genpact fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genpact to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.90. As of August 19, 2022, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 185.8 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 190.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Genpact Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genpact's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Genpact's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Genpact stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genpact's open interest, investors have to compare it to Genpact's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genpact is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genpact. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Genpact cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Genpact's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Genpact's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Genpact - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Genpact prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Genpact price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Genpact.

Genpact Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genpact on the next trading day is expected to be 48.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genpact Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genpact's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genpact Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GenpactGenpact Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Genpact Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Genpact's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genpact's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.37 and 50.18, respectively. We have considered Genpact's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 48.63
48.77
Expected Value
50.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genpact stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genpact stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0747
MADMean absolute deviation0.502
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0113
SAESum of the absolute errors29.6171
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Genpact observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Genpact observations.

Predictive Modules for Genpact

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genpact. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genpact's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Genpact in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
47.2548.6450.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
43.7754.8456.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
44.5747.1249.68
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0056.4362.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genpact. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genpact's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genpact's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Genpact.

Other Forecasting Options for Genpact

For every potential investor in Genpact, whether a beginner or expert, Genpact's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genpact Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genpact. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genpact's price trends.

Genpact Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genpact stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genpact could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genpact by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Mckesson CorpIdeanomicsInternational BusinessWalt DisneyHp IncWalmartJP Morgan ChaseCoca-ColaHome DepotAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genpact Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genpact's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genpact's current price.

Genpact Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genpact stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genpact shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genpact stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genpact entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Genpact Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genpact's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genpact's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Genpact stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Genpact Investors Sentiment

The influence of Genpact's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Genpact. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Genpact's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Genpact. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Genpact can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Genpact. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Genpact's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Genpact's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Genpact's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Genpact.

Genpact Implied Volatility

    
  23.57  
Genpact's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Genpact stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Genpact's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Genpact stock will not fluctuate a lot when Genpact's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Genpact in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Genpact's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Genpact options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Genpact using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genpact to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Genpact information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Genpact's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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When running Genpact price analysis, check to measure Genpact's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genpact is operating at the current time. Most of Genpact's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genpact's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genpact's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genpact to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Genpact's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genpact. If investors know Genpact will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genpact listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.28
Market Capitalization
8.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.1
Return On Assets
0.0674
Return On Equity
0.19
The market value of Genpact is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genpact that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genpact's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genpact's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genpact's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genpact's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genpact's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Genpact value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genpact's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.