Fox Factory Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FOXF
 Stock
  

USD 102.63  6.67  6.10%   

Fox Factory Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fox Factory historical stock prices and determine the direction of Fox Factory Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Fox Factory historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fox Factory naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Fox Factory Holding systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fox Factory fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fox Factory to cross-verify your projections.
  
Fox Factory Receivables Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 9.90. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 4.79, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 12.27. . As of December 2, 2022, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 37.4 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 38 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Fox Factory Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fox Factory's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Fox Factory's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Fox Factory stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fox Factory's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fox Factory's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fox Factory is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fox Factory. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fox Factory cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fox Factory's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fox Factory's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Fox Factory is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fox Factory Holding value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fox Factory Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fox Factory Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 97.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47, mean absolute percentage error of 9.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fox Factory Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fox Factory's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fox Factory Stock Forecast Pattern

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Fox Factory Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fox Factory's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fox Factory's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.13 and 101.11, respectively. We have considered Fox Factory's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 102.63
97.62
Expected Value
101.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fox Factory stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fox Factory stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.222
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4744
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0279
SAESum of the absolute errors153.4107
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fox Factory Holding. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fox Factory. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fox Factory

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fox Factory Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fox Factory's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Fox Factory in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
106.82110.28113.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
98.37140.46143.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
79.8798.18116.48
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00180.00210.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fox Factory. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fox Factory's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fox Factory's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Fox Factory Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Fox Factory

For every potential investor in Fox Factory, whether a beginner or expert, Fox Factory's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fox Factory Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fox Factory. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fox Factory's price trends.

Fox Factory Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fox Factory stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fox Factory could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fox Factory by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Anheuser-Busch InBev SANVNorthwest HealthcareAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fox Factory Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fox Factory's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fox Factory's current price.

Fox Factory Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fox Factory's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fox Factory's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Fox Factory stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Fox Factory without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fox Factory to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Fox Factory Holding price analysis, check to measure Fox Factory's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fox Factory is operating at the current time. Most of Fox Factory's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fox Factory's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fox Factory's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fox Factory to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fox Factory's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fox Factory. If investors know Fox Factory will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fox Factory listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.17
Market Capitalization
4.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
0.0913
Return On Equity
0.2
The market value of Fox Factory Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fox Factory that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fox Factory's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fox Factory's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fox Factory's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fox Factory's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fox Factory's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Fox Factory value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fox Factory's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.