Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

FOUR
 Stock
  

USD 49.88  0.22  0.44%   

Shift4 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shift4 Payments historical stock prices and determine the direction of Shift4 Payments's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Shift4 Payments historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shift4 Payments to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Shift4 Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Shift4 Payments' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Shift4 Payments' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Shift4 Payments stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Shift4 Payments' open interest, investors have to compare it to Shift4 Payments' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Shift4 Payments is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Shift4. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Shift4 Payments cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Shift4 Payments' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Shift4 Payments' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Shift4 Payments simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Shift4 Payments are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Shift4 Payments prices get older.

Shift4 Payments Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 50.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45, mean absolute percentage error of 3.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shift4 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shift4 Payments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shift4 Payments Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shift4 Payments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shift4 Payments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.04 and 54.16, respectively. We have considered Shift4 Payments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 49.88
50.10
Expected Value
54.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shift4 Payments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shift4 Payments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4891
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0433
MADMean absolute deviation1.454
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0321
SAESum of the absolute errors87.24
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Shift4 Payments forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Shift4 Payments observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Shift4 Payments

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shift4 Payments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shift4 Payments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Shift4 Payments in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
42.2546.3450.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
41.7157.1261.21
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
69.0097.50115.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.190.200.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shift4 Payments. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shift4 Payments' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shift4 Payments' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Shift4 Payments.

Other Forecasting Options for Shift4 Payments

For every potential investor in Shift4, whether a beginner or expert, Shift4 Payments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shift4 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shift4. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shift4 Payments' price trends.

Shift4 Payments Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shift4 Payments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shift4 Payments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shift4 Payments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
ACI WorldwideAllot CommunicationsAltair EngineeringAppian CorpA10 NetworkBox IncConsensus Cloud SolutionsCheck Point SoftwareCyberArk SoftwareAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shift4 Payments Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shift4 Payments' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shift4 Payments' current price.

Shift4 Payments Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shift4 Payments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shift4 Payments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Shift4 Payments stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Shift4 Payments in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Shift4 Payments' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Shift4 Payments options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shift4 Payments to cross-verify your projections. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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Is Shift4 Payments' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shift4 Payments. If investors know Shift4 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shift4 Payments listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.28
Market Capitalization
4.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.45
Return On Assets
0.0178
Return On Equity
0.0806
The market value of Shift4 Payments is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shift4 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shift4 Payments' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shift4 Payments' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shift4 Payments' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shift4 Payments' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shift4 Payments' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Shift4 Payments value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shift4 Payments' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.