Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FOUR
 Stock
  

USD 45.45  2.42  5.06%   

Shift4 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shift4 Payments historical stock prices and determine the direction of Shift4 Payments's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Shift4 Payments historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Shift4 Payments naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Shift4 Payments systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Shift4 Payments fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shift4 Payments to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of 08/19/2022, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.73. As of 08/19/2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 43.4 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 43.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Shift4 Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Shift4 Payments' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Shift4 Payments' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Shift4 Payments stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Shift4 Payments' open interest, investors have to compare it to Shift4 Payments' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Shift4 Payments is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Shift4. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Shift4 Payments cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Shift4 Payments' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Shift4 Payments' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Shift4 Payments is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Shift4 Payments value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Shift4 Payments Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shift4 Payments on the next trading day is expected to be 49.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.22, mean absolute percentage error of 7.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shift4 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shift4 Payments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shift4 Payments Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Shift4 PaymentsShift4 Payments Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Shift4 Payments Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shift4 Payments' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shift4 Payments' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.52 and 53.60, respectively. We have considered Shift4 Payments' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 45.45
49.06
Expected Value
53.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shift4 Payments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shift4 Payments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.1001
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.2154
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0588
SAESum of the absolute errors135.1368
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Shift4 Payments. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Shift4 Payments. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Shift4 Payments

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shift4 Payments. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shift4 Payments' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Shift4 Payments in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
41.0645.6050.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
40.9156.1860.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
25.7138.2650.81
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
69.0097.50115.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shift4 Payments. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shift4 Payments' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shift4 Payments' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Shift4 Payments.

Other Forecasting Options for Shift4 Payments

For every potential investor in Shift4, whether a beginner or expert, Shift4 Payments' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shift4 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shift4. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shift4 Payments' price trends.

Shift4 Payments Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shift4 Payments stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shift4 Payments could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shift4 Payments by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aci WorldwideAdobe SystemsAltair EngineeringSunrun IncCharles SchwabMicrosoft CorpNetflixKonica Minolta HoldingsPepsicoEvofem BiosciencesAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 Covered
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shift4 Payments Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shift4 Payments' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shift4 Payments' current price.

Shift4 Payments Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shift4 Payments stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shift4 Payments shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shift4 Payments stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shift4 Payments entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shift4 Payments Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shift4 Payments' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shift4 Payments' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Shift4 Payments stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Shift4 Payments Investors Sentiment

The influence of Shift4 Payments' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Shift4. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Shift4 Payments' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Shift4. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Shift4 can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Shift4 Payments. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Shift4 Payments' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Shift4 Payments' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Shift4 Payments' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Shift4 Payments.

Shift4 Payments Implied Volatility

    
  156.76  
Shift4 Payments' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Shift4 Payments stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Shift4 Payments' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Shift4 Payments stock will not fluctuate a lot when Shift4 Payments' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Shift4 Payments in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Shift4 Payments' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Shift4 Payments options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Shift4 Payments using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shift4 Payments to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Shift4 Payments information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shift4 Payments' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Shift4 Stock analysis

When running Shift4 Payments price analysis, check to measure Shift4 Payments' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shift4 Payments is operating at the current time. Most of Shift4 Payments' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shift4 Payments' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shift4 Payments' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shift4 Payments to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Shift4 Payments' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shift4 Payments. If investors know Shift4 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shift4 Payments listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.28
Market Capitalization
5.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.44
Return On Assets
0.0126
Return On Equity
-0.072
The market value of Shift4 Payments is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shift4 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shift4 Payments' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shift4 Payments' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shift4 Payments' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shift4 Payments' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shift4 Payments' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Shift4 Payments value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shift4 Payments' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.