Five Below Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FIVE
 Stock
  

USD 132.99  1.51  1.15%   

Five Below Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Five Below historical stock prices and determine the direction of Five Below's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Five Below historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Below to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-09-30 Five Below Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Five Below's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Five Below's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Five Below stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Five Below's open interest, investors have to compare it to Five Below's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Five Below is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Five Below. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Five Below cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Five Below's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Five Below's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Five Below - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Five Below prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Five Below price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Five Below.

Five Below Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Below on the next trading day is expected to be 132.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.39, mean absolute percentage error of 19.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 200.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Below Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Below's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Five Below Stock Forecast Pattern

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Five Below Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Five Below's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Five Below's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 129.14 and 135.79, respectively. We have considered Five Below's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 132.99
129.14
Downside
132.47
Expected Value
135.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Below stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Below stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.8966
MADMean absolute deviation3.3917
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0259
SAESum of the absolute errors200.11
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Five Below observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Five Below observations.

Predictive Modules for Five Below

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Below. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Below's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Five Below in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
129.70133.03136.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
119.69161.93165.26
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
205.00237.00300.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Five Below. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Five Below's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Five Below's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Five Below.

Other Forecasting Options for Five Below

For every potential investor in Five Below, whether a beginner or expert, Five Below's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Five Below Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Five Below. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Five Below's price trends.

Five Below Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Five Below stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Five Below could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Five Below by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Wyndham Hotels ResortsSunstone Hotel InvestorsPandox AbTRIPBORN INCHost Marriott FinancialAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt Bond
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Five Below Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Five Below's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Five Below's current price.

Five Below Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Five Below stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Five Below shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Five Below stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Five Below entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Five Below Risk Indicators

The analysis of Five Below's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Five Below's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Five Below stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Five Below Implied Volatility

    
  33.34  
Five Below's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Five Below stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Five Below's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Five Below stock will not fluctuate a lot when Five Below's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Five Below in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Five Below's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Five Below options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Below to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Five Below price analysis, check to measure Five Below's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Below is operating at the current time. Most of Five Below's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Below's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Below's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Below to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Below's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Below. If investors know Five Below will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Below listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Five Below is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five Below that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Below's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Below's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Below's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Below's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Below's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Five Below value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Below's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.