First American Money Market Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

FGXXX
 Fund
  

USD 1.00  1.13  53.05%   

First Money Market Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First American historical stock prices and determine the direction of First American Government's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of First American historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check fundamental analysis of First American to check your projections.
  
Most investors in First American cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First American's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First American's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for First American works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

First American Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First American Government on the next trading day is expected to be 1.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.034237, mean absolute percentage error of 0.023424, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Money Market Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First American Money Market Fund Forecast Pattern

First American Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First American's Money Market Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.22, respectively. We have considered First American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.00
1.01
Expected Value
8.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First American money market fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First American money market fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0153
MADMean absolute deviation0.0342
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0285
SAESum of the absolute errors2.02
When First American Government prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any First American Government trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent First American observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for First American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First American Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First American in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.051.008.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.061.138.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.921.882.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First American. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First American's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First American's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in First American Government.

Other Forecasting Options for First American

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Money Market Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First American's price trends.

First American Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First American money market fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Microsoft CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First American Government Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First American's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First American's current price.

First American Risk Indicators

The analysis of First American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting First American stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First American options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as First American Government using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check fundamental analysis of First American to check your projections. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between First American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine First American value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.