Forum Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FET
 Stock
  

USD 25.47  0.77  2.93%   

Forum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Forum Energy historical stock prices and determine the direction of Forum Energy Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Forum Energy historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Forum Energy naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Forum Energy Technologies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Forum Energy fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forum Energy to cross-verify your projections.
  
Forum Energy PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Forum Energy reported PPandE Turnover of 5.21 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.54 in 2022, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.61 in 2022. . Forum Energy Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Forum Energy reported Weighted Average Shares of 5.64 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 5.8 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (1.5 M) in 2022.
Most investors in Forum Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Forum Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Forum Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Forum Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Forum Energy Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Forum Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Forum Energy Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 27.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forum Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Forum Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forum Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Forum Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forum Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.25 and 31.16, respectively. We have considered Forum Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 25.47
27.20
Expected Value
31.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forum Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forum Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6053
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6072
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0284
SAESum of the absolute errors37.0379
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Forum Energy Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Forum Energy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Forum Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forum Energy Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Forum Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Forum Energy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.7325.6629.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
22.8926.8230.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.6820.4425.19
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
30.0030.0030.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Forum Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Forum Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Forum Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Forum Energy Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Forum Energy

For every potential investor in Forum, whether a beginner or expert, Forum Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forum Energy's price trends.

Forum Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forum Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forum Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forum Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Schlumberger NVHalliburtonTenaris SA ADRChina Oilfield SvcsNOV IncWorley Parsons ADRApple IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Forum Energy Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Forum Energy's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Forum Energy's current price.

Forum Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forum Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forum Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forum Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Forum Energy Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Forum Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Forum Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forum Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Forum Energy stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Forum Energy without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forum Energy to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Forum Energy Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Forum Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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When running Forum Energy Technologies price analysis, check to measure Forum Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forum Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Forum Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forum Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forum Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forum Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Forum Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Forum Energy. If investors know Forum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Forum Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
145.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.25
Return On Assets
-0.0162
Return On Equity
-0.0929
The market value of Forum Energy Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Forum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Forum Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Forum Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Forum Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Forum Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Forum Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Forum Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Forum Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.