Freeport Mcmoran Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FCX
 Stock
  

USD 26.87  0.37  1.40%   

Freeport Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Freeport Mcmoran historical stock prices and determine the direction of Freeport-Mcmoran's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Freeport Mcmoran historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freeport Mcmoran to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-09-30 Freeport Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Freeport Mcmoran's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Freeport Mcmoran's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Freeport Mcmoran stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Freeport Mcmoran's open interest, investors have to compare it to Freeport Mcmoran's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Freeport Mcmoran is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Freeport. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Freeport Mcmoran cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Freeport Mcmoran's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Freeport Mcmoran's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Freeport Mcmoran is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Freeport-Mcmoran value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Freeport Mcmoran Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Freeport-Mcmoran on the next trading day is expected to be 25.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89, mean absolute percentage error of 1.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Freeport Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Freeport Mcmoran's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Freeport Mcmoran Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Freeport McmoranFreeport Mcmoran Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Freeport Mcmoran Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Freeport Mcmoran's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Freeport Mcmoran's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.45 and 28.63, respectively. We have considered Freeport Mcmoran's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 26.87
25.04
Expected Value
28.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Freeport Mcmoran stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Freeport Mcmoran stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3079
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8903
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0304
SAESum of the absolute errors54.3074
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Freeport-Mcmoran. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Freeport Mcmoran. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Freeport Mcmoran

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Freeport-Mcmoran. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Freeport Mcmoran's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Freeport Mcmoran in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.3326.9430.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
24.1834.7538.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
26.7330.0731.74
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
21.0041.4650.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Freeport Mcmoran. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Freeport Mcmoran's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Freeport Mcmoran's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Freeport-Mcmoran.

Other Forecasting Options for Freeport Mcmoran

For every potential investor in Freeport, whether a beginner or expert, Freeport Mcmoran's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Freeport Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Freeport. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Freeport Mcmoran's price trends.

Freeport Mcmoran Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Freeport Mcmoran stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Freeport Mcmoran could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Freeport Mcmoran by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Kibush Capital CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Freeport-Mcmoran Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Freeport Mcmoran's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Freeport Mcmoran's current price.

Freeport Mcmoran Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Freeport Mcmoran stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Freeport Mcmoran shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Freeport Mcmoran stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Freeport-Mcmoran entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Freeport Mcmoran Risk Indicators

The analysis of Freeport Mcmoran's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Freeport Mcmoran's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Freeport Mcmoran stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Freeport Mcmoran Implied Volatility

    
  84.11  
Freeport Mcmoran's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Freeport-Mcmoran stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Freeport Mcmoran's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Freeport Mcmoran stock will not fluctuate a lot when Freeport Mcmoran's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Freeport Mcmoran in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Freeport Mcmoran's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Freeport Mcmoran options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Freeport-Mcmoran using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Freeport Mcmoran to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Freeport-Mcmoran information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Freeport Mcmoran's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Freeport Stock analysis

When running Freeport-Mcmoran price analysis, check to measure Freeport Mcmoran's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Freeport Mcmoran is operating at the current time. Most of Freeport Mcmoran's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Freeport Mcmoran's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Freeport Mcmoran's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Freeport Mcmoran to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Freeport Mcmoran's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Freeport Mcmoran. If investors know Freeport will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Freeport Mcmoran listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Freeport-Mcmoran is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Freeport that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Freeport Mcmoran's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Freeport Mcmoran's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Freeport Mcmoran's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Freeport Mcmoran's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Freeport Mcmoran's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Freeport Mcmoran value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Freeport Mcmoran's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.