National Vision Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EYE -  USA Stock  

USD 27.78  0.15  0.54%

National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Vision historical stock prices and determine the direction of National Vision Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of National Vision historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although National Vision naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of National Vision Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of National Vision fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections.
  
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The current year Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.88. As of May 19, 2022, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 72.6 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 80.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-05-20 National Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast National Vision's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest National Vision's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies National Vision stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current National Vision's open interest, investors have to compare it to National Vision's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of National Vision is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in National Vision cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the National Vision's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets National Vision's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for National Vision - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When National Vision prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in National Vision price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of National Vision Holdings.

National Vision Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Vision Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 27.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 2.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.68. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Vision's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National Vision Stock Forecast Pattern

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National Vision Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National Vision's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Vision's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.82 and 31.75, respectively. We have considered National Vision's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 27.78
27.28
Expected Value
31.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Vision stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Vision stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2673
MADMean absolute deviation1.0115
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0296
SAESum of the absolute errors59.6777
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past National Vision observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older National Vision Holdings observations.

Predictive Modules for National Vision

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Vision Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National Vision in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.1627.6432.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.0035.9040.38
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0060.2570.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.141.141.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National Vision Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for National Vision

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Vision's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Vision's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Vision stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Vision could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Vision by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

National Vision Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Vision's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Vision's current price.

National Vision Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Vision stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Vision shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Vision stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Vision Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National Vision Risk Indicators

The analysis of National Vision's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Vision's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting National Vision stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

National Vision Investors Sentiment

The influence of National Vision's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in National. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

National Vision Implied Volatility

    
  123.23  
National Vision's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of National Vision Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if National Vision's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that National Vision stock will not fluctuate a lot when National Vision's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Vision in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Vision's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Vision options trading.

Current Sentiment - EYE

National Vision Holdings Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on National Vision Holdings. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in National Vision Holdings? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections. Note that the National Vision Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Vision's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running National Vision Holdings price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Vision's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine National Vision value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.