Etsy Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ETSY
 Stock
  

USD 73.21  1.59  2.13%   

Etsy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Etsy historical stock prices and determine the direction of Etsy Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Etsy historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Etsy naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Etsy Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Etsy fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Etsy to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Etsy PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Etsy reported PPandE Turnover of 12.02 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 100.78 in 2022, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.68 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 119.9 M in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 133.1 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-01 Etsy Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Etsy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Etsy's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Etsy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Etsy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Etsy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Etsy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Etsy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Etsy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Etsy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Etsy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Etsy price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Etsy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Etsy Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 64.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.36, mean absolute percentage error of 62.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 388.03. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Etsy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Etsy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Etsy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EtsyEtsy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Etsy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Etsy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Etsy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.68 and 69.94, respectively. We have considered Etsy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 73.21
64.31
Expected Value
69.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Etsy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Etsy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.2407
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.3611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.072
SAESum of the absolute errors388.029
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Etsy Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Etsy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Etsy Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etsy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Etsy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
66.5272.1577.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
66.74120.04125.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
67.9277.5487.16
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
179.00260.65330.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Etsy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Etsy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Etsy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Etsy Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Etsy

For every potential investor in Etsy, whether a beginner or expert, Etsy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Etsy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Etsy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Etsy's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Etsy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Etsy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Etsy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Etsy Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Etsy's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Etsy's current price.

Etsy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Etsy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Etsy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Etsy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Etsy Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Etsy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Etsy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Etsy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Etsy stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Etsy Investors Sentiment

The influence of Etsy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Etsy. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Etsy Implied Volatility

    
  102.19  
Etsy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Etsy Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Etsy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Etsy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Etsy's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Etsy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Etsy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Etsy options trading.

Current Sentiment - ETSY

Etsy Inc Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Etsy Inc. What is your opinion about investing in Etsy Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with Etsy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Etsy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Etsy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Etsy Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Etsy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Etsy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Etsy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Etsy Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Etsy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Etsy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Etsy Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Etsy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Etsy to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Etsy Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Etsy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for Etsy Stock analysis

When running Etsy Inc price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Etsy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Etsy. If investors know Etsy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Etsy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.4
Market Capitalization
9.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.052
Return On Assets
0.0875
Return On Equity
0.64
The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Etsy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.