Essent Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ESNT
 Stock
  

USD 39.01  0.14  0.36%   

Essent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Essent historical stock prices and determine the direction of Essent Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Essent historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Essent naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Essent Group systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Essent fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essent to cross-verify your projections.
  
Essent Receivables Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Essent reported Receivables Turnover of 5.83 in 2021. Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 9.59 in 2022, whereas PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 3.48 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 262.5 M in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 264.7 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Essent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Essent's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Essent's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Essent stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Essent's open interest, investors have to compare it to Essent's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Essent is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Essent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Essent cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Essent's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Essent's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Essent is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Essent Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Essent Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Essent Group on the next trading day is expected to be 40.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Essent Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EssentEssent Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Essent Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Essent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.47 and 42.65, respectively. We have considered Essent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 39.01
40.56
Expected Value
42.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8368
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7043
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0187
SAESum of the absolute errors42.9605
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Essent Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Essent. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Essent

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essent Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Essent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Essent in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.9339.0241.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35.1148.0150.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
36.6938.2639.83
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
51.0057.6072.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Essent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Essent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Essent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Essent Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Essent

For every potential investor in Essent, whether a beginner or expert, Essent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essent's price trends.

Essent Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Fidelity NationalAssurantFirst American CorpBright Lights AcquisitionAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt Bond
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Essent Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Essent's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Essent's current price.

Essent Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Essent Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Essent Risk Indicators

The analysis of Essent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Essent stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Essent without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Essent

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Essent position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Essent will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Essent

+0.67CCLCarnival Corp Buyout TrendPairCorr
+0.89FFord Motor Potential GrowthPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Essent could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Essent when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Essent - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Essent Group to buy it.
The correlation of Essent is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Essent moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Essent Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Essent can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essent to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Essent Group price analysis, check to measure Essent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essent is operating at the current time. Most of Essent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Essent's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Essent. If investors know Essent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Essent listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.1) 
Market Capitalization
4.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.08) 
Return On Assets
0.12
Return On Equity
0.2
The market value of Essent Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Essent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Essent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Essent's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Essent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Essent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Essent's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Essent value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Essent's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.