Equity Residential Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EQR
 Stock
  

USD 67.22  1.26  1.84%   

Equity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Equity Residential historical stock prices and determine the direction of Equity Residential's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Equity Residential historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Equity Residential to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Equity Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Equity Residential's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Equity Residential's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Equity Residential stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Equity Residential's open interest, investors have to compare it to Equity Residential's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Equity Residential is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Equity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Equity Residential cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Equity Residential's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Equity Residential's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Equity Residential works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Equity Residential Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Equity Residential on the next trading day is expected to be 67.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Equity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Equity Residential's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Equity Residential Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Equity ResidentialEquity Residential Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Equity Residential Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Equity Residential's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Equity Residential's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.79 and 68.81, respectively. We have considered Equity Residential's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 67.22
67.30
Expected Value
68.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Equity Residential stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Equity Residential stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1478
MADMean absolute deviation0.9562
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors57.37
When Equity Residential prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Equity Residential trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Equity Residential observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Equity Residential

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Equity Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Equity Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Equity Residential in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
65.6367.1468.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
60.5079.4280.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
67.9475.6483.34
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
66.0088.68100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Equity Residential. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Equity Residential's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Equity Residential's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Equity Residential.

Other Forecasting Options for Equity Residential

For every potential investor in Equity, whether a beginner or expert, Equity Residential's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Equity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Equity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Equity Residential's price trends.

Equity Residential Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Equity Residential stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Equity Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Equity Residential by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Equity Residential Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Equity Residential's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Equity Residential's current price.

Equity Residential Risk Indicators

The analysis of Equity Residential's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Equity Residential's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Equity Residential stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Equity Residential without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Equity Residential

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Equity Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Equity Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Equity Residential

+0.76BLNKBlink Charging Normal TradingPairCorr
+0.73VRMVroom Inc Normal TradingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Equity Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Equity Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Equity Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Equity Residential to buy it.
The correlation of Equity Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Equity Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Equity Residential moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Equity Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Equity Residential to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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Is Equity Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Equity Residential. If investors know Equity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Equity Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Equity Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Equity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Equity Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Equity Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Equity Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Equity Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Equity Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Equity Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Equity Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.