Equity Residential Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EQR
 Stock
  

USD 79.96  1.33  1.69%   

Equity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Equity Residential historical stock prices and determine the direction of Equity Residential's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Equity Residential historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Equity Residential naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Equity Residential systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Equity Residential fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Equity Residential to cross-verify your projections.
  
Equity Residential Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Equity Residential reported last year Accounts Payable Turnover of 22.99. As of 08/13/2022, Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to grow to 11.10, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 3,021. . As of 08/13/2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to grow to about 401.6 M. Also, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 416.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Equity Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Equity Residential's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Equity Residential's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Equity Residential stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Equity Residential's open interest, investors have to compare it to Equity Residential's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Equity Residential is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Equity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Equity Residential cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Equity Residential's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Equity Residential's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Equity Residential is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Equity Residential value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Equity Residential Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Equity Residential on the next trading day is expected to be 81.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 2.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Equity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Equity Residential's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Equity Residential Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Equity ResidentialEquity Residential Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Equity Residential Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Equity Residential's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Equity Residential's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.40 and 83.46, respectively. We have considered Equity Residential's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 79.96
81.93
Expected Value
83.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Equity Residential stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Equity Residential stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.957
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0168
SAESum of the absolute errors74.527
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Equity Residential. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Equity Residential. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Equity Residential

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Equity Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Equity Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Equity Residential in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
78.4880.0381.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
71.9685.9487.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
68.6473.8178.99
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
66.0088.68100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Equity Residential. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Equity Residential's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Equity Residential's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Equity Residential.

Other Forecasting Options for Equity Residential

For every potential investor in Equity, whether a beginner or expert, Equity Residential's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Equity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Equity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Equity Residential's price trends.

Equity Residential Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Equity Residential stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Equity Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Equity Residential by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American Assets TrustChipotle Mexican GrillNational CinemediaAgilent TechnologiesIrobot CorpAlphabet Cl AEssential PropertiesRocket Lab USAAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Equity Residential Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Equity Residential's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Equity Residential's current price.

Equity Residential Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Equity Residential stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Equity Residential shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Equity Residential stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Equity Residential entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Equity Residential Risk Indicators

The analysis of Equity Residential's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Equity Residential's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Equity Residential stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Equity Residential Investors Sentiment

The influence of Equity Residential's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Equity. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Equity Residential's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Equity. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Equity can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Equity Residential. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Equity Residential's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Equity Residential's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Equity Residential's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Equity Residential.

Equity Residential Implied Volatility

    
  15.95  
Equity Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Equity Residential stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Equity Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Equity Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when Equity Residential's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Equity Residential in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Equity Residential's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Equity Residential options trading.

Pair Trading with Equity Residential

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Equity Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Equity Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Equity Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Equity Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Equity Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Equity Residential to buy it.
The correlation of Equity Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Equity Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Equity Residential moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Equity Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Equity Residential to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Equity Residential information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Equity Residential's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

Complementary Tools for Equity Stock analysis

When running Equity Residential price analysis, check to measure Equity Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Equity Residential is operating at the current time. Most of Equity Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Equity Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Equity Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Equity Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Is Equity Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Equity Residential. If investors know Equity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Equity Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.29
Market Capitalization
30.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
0.0208
Return On Equity
0.12
The market value of Equity Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Equity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Equity Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Equity Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Equity Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Equity Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Equity Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Equity Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Equity Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.