Extended Dur Etf Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EDV
 Etf
  

USD 85.74  0.04  0.0466%   

Extended Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Extended Dur historical stock prices and determine the direction of Extended Dur Trs's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Extended Dur historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Extended Dur naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Extended Dur Trs systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Extended Dur fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Extended Dur to cross-verify your projections.
  
Extended Dur PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Extended Dur reported PPandE Turnover of 0.26 in 2021. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to climb to 3.74 in 2022, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 29.71 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to climb to about 259 M in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to climb to about 275.1 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Extended Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Extended Dur's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Extended Dur's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Extended Dur stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Extended Dur's open interest, investors have to compare it to Extended Dur's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Extended Dur is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Extended. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Extended Dur cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Extended Dur's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Extended Dur's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Extended Dur - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Extended Dur prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Extended Dur price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Extended Dur Trs.

Extended Dur Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Extended Dur Trs on the next trading day is expected to be 86.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.29, mean absolute percentage error of 2.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Extended Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Extended Dur's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Extended Dur Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest Extended DurExtended Dur Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Extended Dur Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Extended Dur's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Extended Dur's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.20 and 87.83, respectively. We have considered Extended Dur's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 85.74
86.02
Expected Value
87.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Extended Dur etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Extended Dur etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1739
MADMean absolute deviation1.2935
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0154
SAESum of the absolute errors76.3185
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Extended Dur observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Extended Dur Trs observations.

Predictive Modules for Extended Dur

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Extended Dur Trs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Extended Dur's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Extended Dur in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
84.3586.1787.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
72.9874.8094.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
75.1080.6486.18
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
42.0042.0042.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Extended Dur. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Extended Dur's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Extended Dur's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Extended Dur Trs.

Other Forecasting Options for Extended Dur

For every potential investor in Extended, whether a beginner or expert, Extended Dur's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Extended Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Extended. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Extended Dur's price trends.

Extended Dur Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Extended Dur etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Extended Dur could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Extended Dur by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Ishares 25 YearAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Extended Dur Trs Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Extended Dur's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Extended Dur's current price.

Extended Dur Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Extended Dur etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Extended Dur shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Extended Dur etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Extended Dur Trs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Extended Dur Risk Indicators

The analysis of Extended Dur's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Extended Dur's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Extended Dur stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Extended Dur in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Extended Dur's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Extended Dur options trading.

Pair Trading with Extended Dur

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Extended Dur position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Extended Dur will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Extended Dur could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Extended Dur when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Extended Dur - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Extended Dur Trs to buy it.
The correlation of Extended Dur is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Extended Dur moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Extended Dur Trs moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Extended Dur can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Extended Dur to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Extended Dur Trs information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Extended Dur's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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The market value of Extended Dur Trs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Extended that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Extended Dur's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Extended Dur's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Extended Dur's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Extended Dur's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Extended Dur's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Extended Dur value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Extended Dur's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.