Emergent Biosolutions Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EBS
 Stock
  

USD 12.00  0.19  1.61%   

Emergent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Emergent Biosolutions historical stock prices and determine the direction of Emergent Biosolutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Emergent Biosolutions historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Emergent Biosolutions naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Emergent Biosolutions systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Emergent Biosolutions fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emergent Biosolutions to cross-verify your projections.
  
Emergent Biosolutions Inventory Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Emergent Biosolutions reported last year Inventory Turnover of 2.30. As of 12/03/2022, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.63, while PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 2.04. . As of 12/03/2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 45.9 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 47.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Emergent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Emergent Biosolutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Emergent Biosolutions' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Emergent Biosolutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Emergent Biosolutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Emergent Biosolutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Emergent Biosolutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Emergent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Emergent Biosolutions cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Emergent Biosolutions' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Emergent Biosolutions' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Emergent Biosolutions - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Emergent Biosolutions prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Emergent Biosolutions price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Emergent Biosolutions.

Emergent Biosolutions Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emergent Biosolutions on the next trading day is expected to be 11.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 1.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emergent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emergent Biosolutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Emergent Biosolutions Stock Forecast Pattern

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Emergent Biosolutions Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Emergent Biosolutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Emergent Biosolutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.84 and 18.10, respectively. We have considered Emergent Biosolutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.00
11.97
Expected Value
18.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emergent Biosolutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emergent Biosolutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2457
MADMean absolute deviation0.6235
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0377
SAESum of the absolute errors36.7878
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Emergent Biosolutions observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Emergent Biosolutions observations.

Predictive Modules for Emergent Biosolutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emergent Biosolutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Emergent Biosolutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Emergent Biosolutions in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
5.9112.0418.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.8024.5030.64
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0062.5075.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.695.416.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Emergent Biosolutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Emergent Biosolutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Emergent Biosolutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Emergent Biosolutions.

Other Forecasting Options for Emergent Biosolutions

For every potential investor in Emergent, whether a beginner or expert, Emergent Biosolutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Emergent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Emergent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Emergent Biosolutions' price trends.

Emergent Biosolutions Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Emergent Biosolutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Emergent Biosolutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Emergent Biosolutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Acer TherapeuticsAurora CannabisAgilent TechnologiesAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Emergent Biosolutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Emergent Biosolutions' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Emergent Biosolutions' current price.

Emergent Biosolutions Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Emergent Biosolutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Emergent Biosolutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Emergent Biosolutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Emergent Biosolutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Emergent Biosolutions Risk Indicators

The analysis of Emergent Biosolutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Emergent Biosolutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Emergent Biosolutions stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Emergent Biosolutions without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Emergent Biosolutions

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Emergent Biosolutions position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Emergent Biosolutions will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Emergent Biosolutions

+0.68ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals Upward RallyPairCorr

Moving against Emergent Biosolutions

-0.79MRNAModerna Potential GrowthPairCorr
-0.79WMTWalmart TrendingPairCorr
-0.77JNJJohnson Johnson TrendingPairCorr
-0.76CATCaterpillar TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Emergent Biosolutions could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Emergent Biosolutions when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Emergent Biosolutions - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Emergent Biosolutions to buy it.
The correlation of Emergent Biosolutions is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Emergent Biosolutions moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Emergent Biosolutions moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Emergent Biosolutions can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emergent Biosolutions to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Emergent Biosolutions information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Emergent Biosolutions' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

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When running Emergent Biosolutions price analysis, check to measure Emergent Biosolutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Emergent Biosolutions is operating at the current time. Most of Emergent Biosolutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Emergent Biosolutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Emergent Biosolutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Emergent Biosolutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Emergent Biosolutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Emergent Biosolutions. If investors know Emergent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Emergent Biosolutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.022
Market Capitalization
598.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.27) 
Return On Assets
0.0464
Return On Equity
0.036
The market value of Emergent Biosolutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Emergent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Emergent Biosolutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Emergent Biosolutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Emergent Biosolutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Emergent Biosolutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Emergent Biosolutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Emergent Biosolutions value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Emergent Biosolutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.