Emergent Biosolutions Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

EBS
 Stock
  

USD 20.09  1.24  5.81%   

Emergent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Emergent Biosolutions historical stock prices and determine the direction of Emergent Biosolutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Emergent Biosolutions historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emergent Biosolutions to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Emergent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Emergent Biosolutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Emergent Biosolutions' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Emergent Biosolutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Emergent Biosolutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Emergent Biosolutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Emergent Biosolutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Emergent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Emergent Biosolutions cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Emergent Biosolutions' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Emergent Biosolutions' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Emergent Biosolutions is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Emergent Biosolutions 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Emergent Biosolutions on the next trading day is expected to be 20.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emergent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emergent Biosolutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Emergent Biosolutions Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Emergent BiosolutionsEmergent Biosolutions Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Emergent Biosolutions Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Emergent Biosolutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Emergent Biosolutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.93 and 24.09, respectively. We have considered Emergent Biosolutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 20.09
20.51
Expected Value
24.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emergent Biosolutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emergent Biosolutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3616
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.5541
MADMean absolute deviation1.185
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0433
SAESum of the absolute errors68.7275
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Emergent Biosolutions. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Emergent Biosolutions and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Emergent Biosolutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emergent Biosolutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Emergent Biosolutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Emergent Biosolutions in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.4321.0024.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
19.2031.1434.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
19.5523.0026.45
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0062.5075.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Emergent Biosolutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Emergent Biosolutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Emergent Biosolutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Emergent Biosolutions.

Other Forecasting Options for Emergent Biosolutions

For every potential investor in Emergent, whether a beginner or expert, Emergent Biosolutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Emergent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Emergent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Emergent Biosolutions' price trends.

Emergent Biosolutions Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Emergent Biosolutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Emergent Biosolutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Emergent Biosolutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Emergent Biosolutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Emergent Biosolutions' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Emergent Biosolutions' current price.

Emergent Biosolutions Risk Indicators

The analysis of Emergent Biosolutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Emergent Biosolutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Emergent Biosolutions stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Emergent Biosolutions in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Emergent Biosolutions' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Emergent Biosolutions options trading.

Pair Trading with Emergent Biosolutions

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Emergent Biosolutions position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Emergent Biosolutions will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Emergent Biosolutions

-0.53SBUXStarbucks Corp TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Emergent Biosolutions could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Emergent Biosolutions when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Emergent Biosolutions - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Emergent Biosolutions to buy it.
The correlation of Emergent Biosolutions is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Emergent Biosolutions moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Emergent Biosolutions moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Emergent Biosolutions can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Emergent Biosolutions to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Emergent Biosolutions information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Emergent Biosolutions' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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When running Emergent Biosolutions price analysis, check to measure Emergent Biosolutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Emergent Biosolutions is operating at the current time. Most of Emergent Biosolutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Emergent Biosolutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Emergent Biosolutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Emergent Biosolutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Emergent Biosolutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Emergent Biosolutions. If investors know Emergent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Emergent Biosolutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Emergent Biosolutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Emergent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Emergent Biosolutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Emergent Biosolutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Emergent Biosolutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Emergent Biosolutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Emergent Biosolutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Emergent Biosolutions value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Emergent Biosolutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.