EBay Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

EBAY -  USA Stock  

USD 67.05  0.43  0.64%

EBay Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EBay historical stock prices and determine the direction of EBay Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of EBay historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although EBay naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of EBay Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of EBay fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of EBay to cross-verify your projections.

EBay Stock Forecast 

 
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EBay Receivables Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. EBay reported Receivables Turnover of 18.42 in 2020. Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to rise to 41.05 in 2021, whereas PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 6.38 in 2021. . EBay Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. EBay reported Weighted Average Shares of 710 Million in 2020. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 856.7 M in 2021, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (5.2 B) in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-12-10 EBay Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast EBay's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest EBay's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies EBay stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current EBay's open interest, investors have to compare it to EBay's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of EBay is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in EBay. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in EBay cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the EBay's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets EBay's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for EBay is based on an artificially constructed time series of EBay daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

EBay 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of EBay Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 68.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.00, mean absolute percentage error of 6.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.11. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EBay Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EBay's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

EBay Stock Forecast Pattern

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EBay Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting EBay's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EBay's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.17 and 70.31, respectively. We have considered EBay's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
67.05
5th of December 2021
68.24
Expected Value
70.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EBay stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EBay stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.24
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4855
MADMean absolute deviation2.002
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0276
SAESum of the absolute errors106.1062
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. EBay Inc 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for EBay

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EBay Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of EBay's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of EBay in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
65.6867.7569.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
60.3573.4775.54
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
66.7573.1679.56
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
63.0076.3991.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as EBay. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against EBay's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, EBay's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in EBay Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for EBay

For every potential investor in EBay, whether a beginner or expert, EBay's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EBay Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EBay. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EBay's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EBay stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EBay could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EBay by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

EBay Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EBay's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EBay's current price.

EBay Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EBay stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EBay shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EBay stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EBay Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

EBay Risk Indicators

The analysis of EBay's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EBay's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting EBay stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in EBay without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with EBay

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if EBay position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in EBay will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

EBay Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for EBay and Imedia Brands. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of EBay to cross-verify your projections. Note that the EBay Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other EBay's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for EBay Stock analysis

When running EBay Inc price analysis, check to measure EBay's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EBay is operating at the current time. Most of EBay's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EBay's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EBay's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EBay to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is EBay's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of EBay. If investors know EBay will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about EBay listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of EBay Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of EBay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of EBay's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is EBay's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because EBay's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect EBay's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between EBay's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine EBay value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EBay's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.