Daqo New Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DQ
 Stock
  

USD 51.20  1.38  2.77%   

Daqo New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Daqo New historical stock prices and determine the direction of Daqo New Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Daqo New historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Daqo New to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Daqo New Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Daqo New's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Daqo New's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Daqo New stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Daqo New's open interest, investors have to compare it to Daqo New's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Daqo New is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Daqo New. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Daqo New cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Daqo New's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Daqo New's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Daqo New is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Daqo New Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Daqo New Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Daqo New Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 48.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.00, mean absolute percentage error of 5.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Daqo New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Daqo New's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Daqo New Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Daqo NewDaqo New Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Daqo New Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Daqo New's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Daqo New's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.59 and 52.64, respectively. We have considered Daqo New's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 51.20
48.62
Expected Value
52.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Daqo New stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Daqo New stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7321
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.9962
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0379
SAESum of the absolute errors123.7642
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Daqo New Energy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Daqo New. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Daqo New

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Daqo New Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Daqo New's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Daqo New in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
46.1850.1754.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.8462.4666.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
45.8051.7357.86
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
44.0078.68139.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Daqo New. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Daqo New's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Daqo New's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Daqo New Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for Daqo New

For every potential investor in Daqo New, whether a beginner or expert, Daqo New's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Daqo New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Daqo New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Daqo New's price trends.

Daqo New Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Daqo New stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Daqo New could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Daqo New by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
H B FullerInternational FlavorsOrion Engineered CarbonsAshlandCabot CorpCelanese CorpAlbemarle CorpPolishedChina Xd PlasticsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp Billiton
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Daqo New Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Daqo New's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Daqo New's current price.

Daqo New Risk Indicators

The analysis of Daqo New's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Daqo New's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Daqo New stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Daqo New Investors Sentiment

The influence of Daqo New's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Daqo New. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Daqo New's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Daqo New. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Daqo New can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Daqo New Energy. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Daqo New's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Daqo New's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Daqo New's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Daqo New.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Daqo New in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Daqo New's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Daqo New options trading.

Pair Trading with Daqo New

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Daqo New position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Daqo New will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Daqo New

-0.73SGMLSigma Lithium Corp Buyout TrendPairCorr
-0.68PILBFPilbara Minerals Downward RallyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Daqo New could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Daqo New when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Daqo New - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Daqo New Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Daqo New is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Daqo New moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Daqo New Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Daqo New can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Daqo New to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running Daqo New Energy price analysis, check to measure Daqo New's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Daqo New is operating at the current time. Most of Daqo New's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Daqo New's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Daqo New's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Daqo New to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Daqo New's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Daqo New. If investors know Daqo New will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Daqo New listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.11
Market Capitalization
3.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
1.08
Return On Assets
0.33
Return On Equity
0.52
The market value of Daqo New Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Daqo New that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Daqo New's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Daqo New's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Daqo New's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Daqo New's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Daqo New's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Daqo New value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Daqo New's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.