Amdocs Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DOX
 Stock
  

USD 79.47  0.13  0.16%   

Amdocs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amdocs historical stock prices and determine the direction of Amdocs Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Amdocs historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amdocs to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Amdocs Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amdocs' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Amdocs' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Amdocs stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amdocs' open interest, investors have to compare it to Amdocs' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amdocs is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amdocs. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Amdocs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amdocs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amdocs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Amdocs - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Amdocs prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Amdocs price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Amdocs Limited.

Amdocs Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amdocs Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 79.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amdocs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amdocs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amdocs Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AmdocsAmdocs Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amdocs Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amdocs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amdocs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.21 and 80.37, respectively. We have considered Amdocs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 79.47
79.29
Expected Value
80.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amdocs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amdocs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1386
MADMean absolute deviation0.7011
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors41.3648
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Amdocs observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Amdocs Limited observations.

Predictive Modules for Amdocs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amdocs Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amdocs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amdocs in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
78.6079.7080.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
71.6485.1486.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
79.3282.6185.91
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
78.0088.2099.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amdocs. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amdocs' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amdocs' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amdocs Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for Amdocs

For every potential investor in Amdocs, whether a beginner or expert, Amdocs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amdocs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amdocs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amdocs' price trends.

Amdocs Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amdocs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amdocs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amdocs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Fast RetailingColumbia SprtswrFast RetailingRalph Lauren CorpErmenegildo ZegnaLululemon AthleticaTJX CompaniesAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amdocs Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amdocs' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amdocs' current price.

Amdocs Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amdocs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amdocs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amdocs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amdocs Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amdocs Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amdocs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amdocs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Amdocs stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Amdocs in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Amdocs' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Amdocs options trading.

Pair Trading with Amdocs

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amdocs position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amdocs will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Amdocs

+0.89ADBEAdobe Systems Fiscal Year End 15th of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.88SNPSSynopsys Fiscal Year End 7th of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.76AXPAmerican Express Earnings Call  In Three WeeksPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amdocs could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amdocs when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amdocs - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amdocs Limited to buy it.
The correlation of Amdocs is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amdocs moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amdocs Limited moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amdocs can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amdocs to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Amdocs Limited price analysis, check to measure Amdocs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amdocs is operating at the current time. Most of Amdocs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amdocs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amdocs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amdocs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Bond Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Is Amdocs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amdocs. If investors know Amdocs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amdocs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Amdocs Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amdocs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amdocs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amdocs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amdocs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amdocs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amdocs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amdocs value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amdocs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.