Amdocs Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DOX
 Stock
  

USD 83.01  2.00  2.47%   

Amdocs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amdocs historical stock prices and determine the direction of Amdocs Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Amdocs historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amdocs to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Amdocs Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amdocs' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Amdocs' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Amdocs stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amdocs' open interest, investors have to compare it to Amdocs' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amdocs is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amdocs. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Amdocs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amdocs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amdocs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Amdocs simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Amdocs Limited are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Amdocs Limited prices get older.

Amdocs Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amdocs Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 83.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amdocs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amdocs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amdocs Stock Forecast Pattern

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Amdocs Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amdocs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amdocs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.87 and 84.15, respectively. We have considered Amdocs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 83.01
83.01
Expected Value
84.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amdocs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amdocs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2344
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0062
MADMean absolute deviation0.7122
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0084
SAESum of the absolute errors42.73
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Amdocs Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Amdocs observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Amdocs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amdocs Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amdocs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amdocs in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
81.5982.6983.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
74.3885.9087.00
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
78.0088.2099.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amdocs. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amdocs' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amdocs' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amdocs Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for Amdocs

For every potential investor in Amdocs, whether a beginner or expert, Amdocs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amdocs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amdocs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amdocs' price trends.

Amdocs Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amdocs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amdocs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amdocs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Lululemon AthleticaPinduoduo ADRHome DepotRoss StoresWalmartAmazon IncTarget CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amdocs Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amdocs' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amdocs' current price.

Amdocs Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amdocs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amdocs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amdocs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amdocs Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amdocs Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amdocs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amdocs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Amdocs stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Amdocs without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Amdocs

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amdocs position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amdocs will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Amdocs

+0.9ADBEAdobe Systems Fiscal Year End 15th of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.89SNPSSynopsys Fiscal Year End 7th of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.84SQBlock Inc TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amdocs could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amdocs when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amdocs - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amdocs Limited to buy it.
The correlation of Amdocs is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amdocs moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amdocs Limited moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amdocs can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amdocs to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

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Is Amdocs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amdocs. If investors know Amdocs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amdocs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Amdocs Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amdocs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amdocs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amdocs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amdocs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amdocs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amdocs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amdocs value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amdocs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.