Dollar Tree Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

DLTR
 Stock
  

USD 144.50  0.49  0.34%   

Dollar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dollar Tree historical stock prices and determine the direction of Dollar Tree's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Dollar Tree historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Dollar Tree naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Dollar Tree systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Dollar Tree fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dollar Tree to cross-verify your projections.
  
Dollar Tree PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Dollar Tree reported last year PPandE Turnover of 6.14. As of 12/08/2022, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 182.34, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 19.59. . Dollar Tree Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Dollar Tree reported last year Weighted Average Shares of 227.9 Million. As of 12/08/2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 229.5 M, though Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to (487.7 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 Dollar Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dollar Tree's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Dollar Tree's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Dollar Tree stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dollar Tree's open interest, investors have to compare it to Dollar Tree's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dollar Tree is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dollar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Dollar Tree cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dollar Tree's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dollar Tree's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Dollar Tree price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Dollar Tree Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Dollar Tree on the next trading day is expected to be 158.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.22, mean absolute percentage error of 54.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 379.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dollar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dollar Tree's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dollar Tree Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dollar TreeDollar Tree Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dollar Tree Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dollar Tree's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dollar Tree's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 156.49 and 160.80, respectively. We have considered Dollar Tree's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 144.50
156.49
Downside
158.65
Expected Value
160.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dollar Tree stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dollar Tree stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.0999
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.2239
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0412
SAESum of the absolute errors379.6563
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Dollar Tree historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar Tree. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dollar Tree in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
142.34144.95147.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
143.48146.09148.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
128.67152.54176.42
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
108.00144.62175.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dollar Tree. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dollar Tree's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dollar Tree's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Dollar Tree.

Other Forecasting Options for Dollar Tree

For every potential investor in Dollar, whether a beginner or expert, Dollar Tree's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dollar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dollar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dollar Tree's price trends.

Dollar Tree Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dollar Tree stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dollar Tree could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dollar Tree by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American ExpressExxon Mobil CorpAlcoa CorpChevron CorpBank Of AmericaPfizer IncBoeingInternational BusinessAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dollar Tree Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dollar Tree's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dollar Tree's current price.

Dollar Tree Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dollar Tree stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dollar Tree shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dollar Tree stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dollar Tree entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dollar Tree Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dollar Tree's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dollar Tree's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Dollar Tree stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Dollar Tree Implied Volatility

    
  39.41  
Dollar Tree's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dollar Tree stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dollar Tree's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dollar Tree stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dollar Tree's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Dollar Tree in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Dollar Tree's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Dollar Tree options trading.

Pair Trading with Dollar Tree

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dollar Tree position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dollar Tree will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Dollar Tree

+0.81DGDollar General Sell-off TrendPairCorr
+0.78DRIDarden Restaurants Earnings Call Next WeekPairCorr
+0.75EATBrinker International Buyout TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dollar Tree could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dollar Tree when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dollar Tree - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dollar Tree to buy it.
The correlation of Dollar Tree is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dollar Tree moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dollar Tree moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dollar Tree can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dollar Tree to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Dollar Tree price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dollar Tree's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar Tree. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar Tree listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Dollar Tree is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar Tree's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar Tree's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar Tree's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar Tree's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar Tree's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Dollar Tree value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar Tree's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.