Diamond Hill Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DHIL
 Stock
  

USD 177.96  1.56  0.88%   

Diamond Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Diamond Hill historical stock prices and determine the direction of Diamond Hill Investment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Diamond Hill historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Diamond Hill naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Diamond Hill Investment systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Diamond Hill fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diamond Hill to cross-verify your projections.
  
Diamond Hill PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 43.42. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to hike to 2.97 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 21.39. . The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to pull down to about 3 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to pull down to about 3 M.
Most investors in Diamond Hill cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Diamond Hill's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Diamond Hill's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Diamond Hill simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Diamond Hill Investment are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Diamond Hill Investment prices get older.

Diamond Hill Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Diamond Hill Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 177.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.68, mean absolute percentage error of 11.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 161.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Diamond Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Diamond Hill's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Diamond Hill Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Diamond HillDiamond Hill Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Diamond Hill Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Diamond Hill's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Diamond Hill's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 175.70 and 179.81, respectively. We have considered Diamond Hill's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 177.96
175.70
Downside
177.76
Expected Value
179.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Diamond Hill stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Diamond Hill stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7294
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1956
MADMean absolute deviation2.6835
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors161.008
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Diamond Hill Investment forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Diamond Hill observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Diamond Hill

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Diamond Hill Investment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Diamond Hill's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Diamond Hill in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
175.59177.65179.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
156.32158.38195.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
158.79173.42188.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Diamond Hill. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Diamond Hill's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Diamond Hill's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Diamond Hill Investment.

Other Forecasting Options for Diamond Hill

For every potential investor in Diamond, whether a beginner or expert, Diamond Hill's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Diamond Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Diamond. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Diamond Hill's price trends.

Diamond Hill Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Diamond Hill stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Diamond Hill could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Diamond Hill by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Procter GambleAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpSignature Bank
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Diamond Hill Investment Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Diamond Hill's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Diamond Hill's current price.

Diamond Hill Risk Indicators

The analysis of Diamond Hill's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Diamond Hill's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Diamond Hill stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Diamond Hill Investors Sentiment

The influence of Diamond Hill's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Diamond. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Diamond Hill's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Diamond. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Diamond can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Diamond Hill Investment. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Diamond Hill's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Diamond Hill's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Diamond Hill's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Diamond Hill.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Diamond Hill in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Diamond Hill's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Diamond Hill options trading.

Pair Trading with Diamond Hill

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Diamond Hill position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Diamond Hill will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Diamond Hill

+0.85JEFJefferies Financial Fiscal Year End 11th of January 2023 PairCorr
+0.7CCitigroup Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
+0.89JPMJPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Diamond Hill could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Diamond Hill when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Diamond Hill - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Diamond Hill Investment to buy it.
The correlation of Diamond Hill is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Diamond Hill moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Diamond Hill Investment moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Diamond Hill can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diamond Hill to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Diamond Hill Investment price analysis, check to measure Diamond Hill's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Diamond Hill is operating at the current time. Most of Diamond Hill's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Diamond Hill's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Diamond Hill's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Diamond Hill to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Is Diamond Hill's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Diamond Hill. If investors know Diamond will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Diamond Hill listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.51) 
Market Capitalization
532 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.30) 
Return On Assets
0.16
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Diamond Hill Investment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Diamond that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Diamond Hill's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Diamond Hill's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Diamond Hill's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Diamond Hill's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Diamond Hill's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Diamond Hill value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Diamond Hill's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.