Dupont Denemours Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DD -  USA Stock  

USD 55.91  2.64  4.51%

Dupont Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dupont Denemours historical stock prices and determine the direction of Dupont Denemours's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Dupont Denemours historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Dupont Denemours naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Dupont Denemours systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Dupont Denemours fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dupont Denemours to cross-verify your projections.
  
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The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 3.14. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 6.48. Dupont Denemours Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 544.2 Million.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-06-24 Dupont Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dupont Denemours' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Dupont Denemours' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Dupont Denemours stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dupont Denemours' open interest, investors have to compare it to Dupont Denemours' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dupont Denemours is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dupont. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Dupont Denemours cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dupont Denemours' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dupont Denemours' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Dupont Denemours is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dupont Denemours value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dupont Denemours Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dupont Denemours on the next trading day is expected to be 51.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58, mean absolute percentage error of 3.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.03. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dupont Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dupont Denemours' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dupont Denemours Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dupont DenemoursDupont Denemours Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dupont Denemours Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dupont Denemours' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dupont Denemours' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.42 and 53.73, respectively. We have considered Dupont Denemours' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 55.91
51.58
Expected Value
53.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dupont Denemours stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dupont Denemours stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.196
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5812
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0244
SAESum of the absolute errors98.0334
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dupont Denemours. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dupont Denemours. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dupont Denemours

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dupont Denemours. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dupont Denemours' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dupont Denemours in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
56.2758.4360.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
52.7068.5870.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
54.2263.2872.35
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
77.0092.67102.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dupont Denemours. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dupont Denemours' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dupont Denemours' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Dupont Denemours.

Other Forecasting Options for Dupont Denemours

For every potential investor in Dupont, whether a beginner or expert, Dupont Denemours' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dupont Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dupont. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dupont Denemours' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dupont Denemours stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dupont Denemours could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dupont Denemours by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Dupont Denemours Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dupont Denemours' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dupont Denemours' current price.

Dupont Denemours Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dupont Denemours' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dupont Denemours' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Dupont Denemours stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Dupont Denemours Investors Sentiment

The influence of Dupont Denemours' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Dupont. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Dupont Denemours Implied Volatility

    
  39.63  
Dupont Denemours' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dupont Denemours stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dupont Denemours' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dupont Denemours stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dupont Denemours' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Dupont Denemours in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Dupont Denemours' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Dupont Denemours options trading.

Current Sentiment - DD

Dupont Denemours Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Dupont Denemours. What is your opinion about investing in Dupont Denemours? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with Dupont Denemours

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dupont Denemours position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dupont Denemours will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Dupont Denemours Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dupont Denemours could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dupont Denemours when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dupont Denemours - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dupont Denemours to buy it.
The correlation of Dupont Denemours is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dupont Denemours moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dupont Denemours moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dupont Denemours can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dupont Denemours to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Dupont Denemours information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Dupont Denemours' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Dupont Stock analysis

When running Dupont Denemours price analysis, check to measure Dupont Denemours' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dupont Denemours is operating at the current time. Most of Dupont Denemours' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dupont Denemours' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dupont Denemours' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dupont Denemours to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dupont Denemours' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dupont Denemours. If investors know Dupont will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dupont Denemours listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.89
Market Capitalization
28.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.085
Return On Assets
0.036
Return On Equity
0.0605
The market value of Dupont Denemours is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dupont that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dupont Denemours' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dupont Denemours' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dupont Denemours' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dupont Denemours' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dupont Denemours' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Dupont Denemours value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dupont Denemours' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.