Duck Creek Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DCT
 Stock
  

USD 11.09  0.11  1.00%   

Duck Creek Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Duck Creek historical stock prices and determine the direction of Duck Creek Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Duck Creek historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Duck Creek naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Duck Creek Technologies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Duck Creek fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duck Creek to cross-verify your projections.
  
Duck Creek Accounts Payable Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Duck Creek reported Accounts Payable Turnover of 4.69 in 2021. Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to gain to 15.74 in 2022, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.09 in 2022. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to gain to about 5.2 M in 2022, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 75.7 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Duck Creek Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Duck Creek's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Duck Creek's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Duck Creek stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Duck Creek's open interest, investors have to compare it to Duck Creek's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Duck Creek is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Duck Creek. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Duck Creek cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Duck Creek's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Duck Creek's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Duck Creek - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Duck Creek prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Duck Creek price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Duck Creek Technologies.

Duck Creek Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duck Creek Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 11.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duck Creek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duck Creek's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Duck Creek Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Duck CreekDuck Creek Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Duck Creek Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Duck Creek's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duck Creek's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.11 and 14.09, respectively. We have considered Duck Creek's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.09
11.10
Expected Value
14.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duck Creek stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duck Creek stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0219
MADMean absolute deviation0.2303
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors13.59
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Duck Creek observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Duck Creek Technologies observations.

Predictive Modules for Duck Creek

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duck Creek Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Duck Creek's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Duck Creek in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.0611.0714.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.9818.6821.69
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
35.0041.3050.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.020.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Duck Creek. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Duck Creek's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Duck Creek's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Duck Creek Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Duck Creek

For every potential investor in Duck Creek, whether a beginner or expert, Duck Creek's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duck Creek Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duck Creek. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duck Creek's price trends.

Duck Creek Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duck Creek stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duck Creek could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duck Creek by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Apple IncFUBON FINANCIAL HLDGBristol Myer SquiBerkshire HathawayExxon Mobil CorpAmazon IncAlphabet Cl CUnitedhealth GroupMicrosoft CorpCanadian Natural ResAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Duck Creek Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Duck Creek's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Duck Creek's current price.

Duck Creek Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duck Creek stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duck Creek shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duck Creek stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duck Creek Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Duck Creek Risk Indicators

The analysis of Duck Creek's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duck Creek's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Duck Creek stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Duck Creek Investors Sentiment

The influence of Duck Creek's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Duck Creek. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Duck Creek's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Duck Creek. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Duck Creek can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Duck Creek Technologies. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Duck Creek's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Duck Creek's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Duck Creek's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Duck Creek.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Duck Creek in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Duck Creek's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Duck Creek options trading.

Pair Trading with Duck Creek

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Duck Creek position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Duck Creek will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Duck Creek

-0.57TWTRTwitter DelistingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Duck Creek could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Duck Creek when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Duck Creek - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Duck Creek Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Duck Creek is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Duck Creek moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Duck Creek Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Duck Creek can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duck Creek to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Duck Creek Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Duck Creek's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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Is Duck Creek's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duck Creek. If investors know Duck Creek will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Duck Creek listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
1.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
(0.0039) 
Return On Equity
(0.0114) 
The market value of Duck Creek Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Duck Creek that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Duck Creek's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Duck Creek's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Duck Creek's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Duck Creek's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duck Creek's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Duck Creek value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duck Creek's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.