Decred Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction

DCR
 Crypto
  

USD 19.88  0.77  3.73%   

Decred Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Decred historical crypto prices and determine the direction of Decred's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Decred historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Decred to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Decred cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Decred's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Decred's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Decred is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Decred value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Decred Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Decred on the next trading day is expected to be 23.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07, mean absolute percentage error of 1.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Decred Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Decred's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Decred Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

Decred Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Decred's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Decred's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.03 and 28.14, respectively. We have considered Decred's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 19.88
23.09
Expected Value
28.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Decred crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Decred crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5444
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0658
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0446
SAESum of the absolute errors66.0798
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Decred. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Decred. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Decred

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Decred. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Decred's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Decred in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.8219.8824.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.6318.6923.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
20.4920.5920.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Decred. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Decred's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Decred's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Decred.

Other Forecasting Options for Decred

For every potential investor in Decred, whether a beginner or expert, Decred's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Decred Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Decred. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Decred's price trends.

Decred Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Decred crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Decred could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Decred by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
BCDSLSTHCAEHCEMCFAIRXDNXWCZELIOCAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQ
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Decred Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Decred's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Decred's current price.

Decred Risk Indicators

The analysis of Decred's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Decred's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Decred stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Decred without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Decred

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Decred position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Decred will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Decred

+0.88BCDBCDPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Decred could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Decred when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Decred - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Decred to buy it.
The correlation of Decred is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Decred moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Decred moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Decred can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Decred to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Decred information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Decred's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Other Tools for Decred Crypto Coin

When running Decred price analysis, check to measure Decred's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Decred is operating at the current time. Most of Decred's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of Decred's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Decred's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding Decred to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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