Cytokinetics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CYTK
 Stock
  

USD 52.92  0.42  0.80%   

Cytokinetics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cytokinetics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Cytokinetics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Cytokinetics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cytokinetics naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Cytokinetics systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cytokinetics fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cytokinetics to cross-verify your projections.
  
Cytokinetics Asset Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Asset Turnover was reported at 0.10. The current Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is estimated to increase to about 345.2 M, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to under 65.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Cytokinetics Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cytokinetics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Cytokinetics' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Cytokinetics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cytokinetics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cytokinetics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cytokinetics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cytokinetics. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cytokinetics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cytokinetics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cytokinetics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Cytokinetics price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Cytokinetics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Cytokinetics on the next trading day is expected to be 45.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.76, mean absolute percentage error of 11.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 168.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cytokinetics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cytokinetics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cytokinetics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CytokineticsCytokinetics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cytokinetics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cytokinetics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cytokinetics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.68 and 50.64, respectively. We have considered Cytokinetics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 52.92
45.66
Expected Value
50.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cytokinetics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cytokinetics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5701
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.7622
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0635
SAESum of the absolute errors168.4921
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Cytokinetics historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Cytokinetics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cytokinetics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cytokinetics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cytokinetics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
48.4953.4758.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
47.1252.1057.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
34.4643.7453.03
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0054.6775.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cytokinetics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cytokinetics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cytokinetics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cytokinetics.

Other Forecasting Options for Cytokinetics

For every potential investor in Cytokinetics, whether a beginner or expert, Cytokinetics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cytokinetics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cytokinetics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cytokinetics' price trends.

Cytokinetics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cytokinetics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cytokinetics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cytokinetics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Intel CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cytokinetics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cytokinetics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cytokinetics' current price.

Cytokinetics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cytokinetics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cytokinetics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cytokinetics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cytokinetics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cytokinetics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cytokinetics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cytokinetics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Cytokinetics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Cytokinetics Investors Sentiment

The influence of Cytokinetics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Cytokinetics. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Cytokinetics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Cytokinetics. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cytokinetics can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cytokinetics. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Cytokinetics' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Cytokinetics' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Cytokinetics' news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Cytokinetics.

Cytokinetics Implied Volatility

    
  95.16  
Cytokinetics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cytokinetics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cytokinetics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cytokinetics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cytokinetics' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cytokinetics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cytokinetics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cytokinetics options trading.

Pair Trading with Cytokinetics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cytokinetics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cytokinetics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Cytokinetics

0.73BLUBellus Health Aggressive PushPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cytokinetics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cytokinetics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cytokinetics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cytokinetics to buy it.
The correlation of Cytokinetics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cytokinetics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cytokinetics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cytokinetics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cytokinetics to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Cytokinetics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cytokinetics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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Is Cytokinetics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cytokinetics. If investors know Cytokinetics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cytokinetics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
4.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
30.29
Return On Assets
-0.17
Return On Equity
-3.38
The market value of Cytokinetics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cytokinetics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cytokinetics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cytokinetics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cytokinetics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cytokinetics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cytokinetics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cytokinetics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cytokinetics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.