Chevron Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CVX
 Stock
  

USD 172.01  4.55  2.58%   

Chevron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Chevron Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Chevron Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Chevron Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Chevron Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Chevron Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Chevron Corp fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chevron Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
PPandE Turnover is likely to rise to 1.26 in 2022. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 11.65 in 2022. Weighted Average Shares is likely to rise to about 2.1 B in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 2.1 B in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 Chevron Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Chevron Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Chevron Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Chevron Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Chevron Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Chevron Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Chevron Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Chevron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Chevron Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Chevron Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Chevron Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Chevron Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Chevron Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Chevron Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Chevron Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 172.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.80, mean absolute percentage error of 11.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 173.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chevron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chevron Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chevron Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Chevron CorpChevron Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Chevron Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chevron Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chevron Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 169.90 and 174.11, respectively. We have considered Chevron Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 172.01
169.90
Downside
172.00
Expected Value
174.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chevron Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chevron Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4056
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.7978
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0173
SAESum of the absolute errors173.4653
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Chevron Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Chevron Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Chevron Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chevron Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chevron Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chevron Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
169.86171.95174.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
142.37144.46189.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
174.78181.70188.62
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
105.00128.94155.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chevron Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chevron Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chevron Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chevron Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Chevron Corp

For every potential investor in Chevron, whether a beginner or expert, Chevron Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chevron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chevron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chevron Corp's price trends.

Chevron Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chevron Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chevron Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chevron Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
General ElectricHome DepotBoeingBank Of AmericaATT IncWalmartDupont De NemoursIntelAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Chevron Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chevron Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chevron Corp's current price.

Chevron Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chevron Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chevron Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Chevron Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Chevron Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Chevron Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Chevron Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Chevron Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Chevron Corp

+0.77EURNEuronav NV Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.78ABBVAbbVie Inc Sell-off TrendPairCorr

Moving against Chevron Corp

-0.54TSCTwenty Seven SplitPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Chevron Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Chevron Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Chevron Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Chevron Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Chevron Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Chevron Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Chevron Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Chevron Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chevron Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

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When running Chevron Corp price analysis, check to measure Chevron Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chevron Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Chevron Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chevron Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chevron Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chevron Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chevron Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chevron Corp. If investors know Chevron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chevron Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.814
Market Capitalization
332.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.492
Return On Assets
0.0924
Return On Equity
0.2316
The market value of Chevron Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chevron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chevron Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chevron Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chevron Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chevron Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chevron Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chevron Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chevron Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.