CVS Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CVS
 Stock
  

USD 106.25  0.14  0.13%   

CVS Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CVS Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of CVS Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CVS Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CVS Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of CVS Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CVS Corp fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVS Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
CVS Corp Receivables Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. CVS Corp reported last year Receivables Turnover of 12.65. As of 08/15/2022, Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to grow to 26.89, while PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 19.30. . As of 08/15/2022, Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to about 592.3 M, while Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 1.2 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 CVS Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CVS Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest CVS Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies CVS Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CVS Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to CVS Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CVS Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CVS Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CVS Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CVS Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CVS Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for CVS Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CVS Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CVS Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CVS Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 111.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CVS Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CVS Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CVS Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CVS CorpCVS Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CVS Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CVS Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CVS Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 109.47 and 112.69, respectively. We have considered CVS Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 106.25
109.47
Downside
111.08
Expected Value
112.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CVS Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CVS Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9061
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.261
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0132
SAESum of the absolute errors76.92
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CVS Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CVS Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CVS Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVS Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CVS Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CVS Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
104.90106.51108.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
91.6993.30117.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
91.09102.58114.08
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
80.00111.00125.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CVS Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CVS Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CVS Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CVS Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for CVS Corp

For every potential investor in CVS Corp, whether a beginner or expert, CVS Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CVS Corp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CVS Corp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CVS Corp's price trends.

CVS Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CVS Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CVS Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CVS Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Cisco SystemsInternational BusinessGeneral ElectricWalt DisneyIntel CorpBoeing CompanyAmerican ExpressHome Depot3M CompanyAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CVS Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CVS Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CVS Corp's current price.

CVS Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CVS Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CVS Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CVS Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CVS Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CVS Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of CVS Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CVS Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting CVS Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

CVS Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of CVS Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in CVS Corp. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to CVS Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in CVS Corp. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CVS Corp can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CVS Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CVS Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for CVS Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average CVS Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on CVS Corp.

CVS Corp Implied Volatility

    
  23.7  
CVS Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CVS Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CVS Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CVS Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when CVS Corp's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CVS Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CVS Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CVS Corp options trading.

Pair Trading with CVS Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CVS Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CVS Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with CVS Corp

0.68AAgilent Technologies Earnings Call  TomorrowPairCorr

Moving against CVS Corp

0.68MPLNMultiplan Corp Downward RallyPairCorr
0.65ACURAcura Pharma Cmn Earnings Call  TodayPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CVS Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CVS Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CVS Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CVS Corp to buy it.
The correlation of CVS Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CVS Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CVS Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CVS Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVS Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the CVS Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CVS Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for CVS Corp Stock analysis

When running CVS Corp price analysis, check to measure CVS Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CVS Corp is operating at the current time. Most of CVS Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CVS Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CVS Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CVS Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CVS Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CVS Corp. If investors know CVS Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CVS Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.062
Market Capitalization
139.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.11
Return On Assets
0.0391
Return On Equity
0.11
The market value of CVS Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CVS Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CVS Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CVS Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CVS Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CVS Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CVS Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CVS Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CVS Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.