Commvault Systems Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

CVLT
 Stock
  

USD 55.98  1.84  3.40%   

Commvault Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Commvault Systems historical stock prices and determine the direction of Commvault Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Commvault Systems historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commvault Systems to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Commvault Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Commvault Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Commvault Systems' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Commvault Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Commvault Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Commvault Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Commvault Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Commvault. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Commvault Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Commvault Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Commvault Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Commvault Systems is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Commvault Systems Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Commvault Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 55.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 2.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commvault Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commvault Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Commvault Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Commvault SystemsCommvault Systems Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Commvault Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Commvault Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commvault Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.56 and 58.40, respectively. We have considered Commvault Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 55.98
55.98
Expected Value
58.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commvault Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commvault Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1839
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0955
MADMean absolute deviation1.063
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors62.715
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Commvault Systems price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Commvault Systems. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Commvault Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commvault Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commvault Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Commvault Systems in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
53.5656.0358.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
50.3863.5366.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
49.2555.9362.60
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
64.0078.8085.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commvault Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commvault Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commvault Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Commvault Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for Commvault Systems

For every potential investor in Commvault, whether a beginner or expert, Commvault Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commvault Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commvault. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commvault Systems' price trends.

Commvault Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commvault Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commvault Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commvault Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sika Finanz AgSchulman AEcolab IncBeardSika FinanzHelmerich PayneCroda Intl PlcPatterson-Uti EnergyAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Commvault Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Commvault Systems' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Commvault Systems' current price.

Commvault Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commvault Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commvault Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commvault Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commvault Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Commvault Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of Commvault Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commvault Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Commvault Systems stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Commvault Systems in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Commvault Systems' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Commvault Systems options trading.

Pair Trading with Commvault Systems

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Commvault Systems position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Commvault Systems will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Commvault Systems

+0.66LUMNCenturylink Normal TradingPairCorr

Moving against Commvault Systems

-0.53UBERUber Technologies Upward RallyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Commvault Systems could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Commvault Systems when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Commvault Systems - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Commvault Systems to buy it.
The correlation of Commvault Systems is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Commvault Systems moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Commvault Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Commvault Systems can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commvault Systems to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Commvault Systems price analysis, check to measure Commvault Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commvault Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Commvault Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commvault Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commvault Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commvault Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Commvault Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commvault Systems. If investors know Commvault will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commvault Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Commvault Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commvault that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commvault Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commvault Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commvault Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commvault Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commvault Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Commvault Systems value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commvault Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.