CommVault Systems Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

CVLT
 Stock
  

USD 66.92  0.43  0.64%   

CommVault Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CommVault Systems historical stock prices and determine the direction of CommVault Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CommVault Systems historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CommVault Systems naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of CommVault Systems systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CommVault Systems fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CommVault Systems to cross-verify your projections.
  
CommVault Systems PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. CommVault Systems reported PPandE Turnover of 7.02 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.01 in 2022, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 2.01 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 52 M in 2022, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 42.9 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 CommVault Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CommVault Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest CommVault Systems' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies CommVault Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CommVault Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to CommVault Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CommVault Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CommVault. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CommVault Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CommVault Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CommVault Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for CommVault Systems is based on an artificially constructed time series of CommVault Systems daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

CommVault Systems 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CommVault Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 66.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60, mean absolute percentage error of 3.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CommVault Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CommVault Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CommVault Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CommVault SystemsCommVault Systems Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CommVault Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CommVault Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CommVault Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.48 and 67.85, respectively. We have considered CommVault Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 66.92
66.16
Expected Value
67.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CommVault Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CommVault Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria104.7143
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.228
MADMean absolute deviation1.6023
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0265
SAESum of the absolute errors84.9238
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. CommVault Systems 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for CommVault Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CommVault Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CommVault Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CommVault Systems in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
65.3867.0568.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
60.2376.6378.30
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
64.0078.8085.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.730.790.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CommVault Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CommVault Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CommVault Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CommVault Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for CommVault Systems

For every potential investor in CommVault, whether a beginner or expert, CommVault Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CommVault Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CommVault. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CommVault Systems' price trends.

CommVault Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CommVault Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CommVault Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CommVault Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Absolute SoftwareADEIA CORPAutodeskAudioEyeAgilysysAlarm HoldingsAmerican SoftwareANSYS IncAppfolioDigital TurbineAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEAN
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CommVault Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CommVault Systems' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CommVault Systems' current price.

CommVault Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of CommVault Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CommVault Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting CommVault Systems stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

CommVault Systems Investors Sentiment

The influence of CommVault Systems' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in CommVault. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to CommVault Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in CommVault. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CommVault can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CommVault Systems. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
CommVault Systems' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for CommVault Systems' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average CommVault Systems' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on CommVault Systems.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CommVault Systems in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CommVault Systems' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CommVault Systems options trading.

Pair Trading with CommVault Systems

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CommVault Systems position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CommVault Systems will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against CommVault Systems

-0.84AYXAlteryx Downward RallyPairCorr
-0.8TTDTrade Desk Upward RallyPairCorr
-0.76ESTCElastic NV Tech BoostPairCorr
-0.76RIOTRiot Blockchain Normal TradingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CommVault Systems could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CommVault Systems when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CommVault Systems - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CommVault Systems to buy it.
The correlation of CommVault Systems is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CommVault Systems moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CommVault Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CommVault Systems can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CommVault Systems to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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When running CommVault Systems price analysis, check to measure CommVault Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CommVault Systems is operating at the current time. Most of CommVault Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CommVault Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CommVault Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CommVault Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CommVault Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CommVault Systems. If investors know CommVault will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CommVault Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.64
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.057
Return On Assets
0.0312
Return On Equity
0.0921
The market value of CommVault Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CommVault that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CommVault Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CommVault Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CommVault Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CommVault Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CommVault Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CommVault Systems value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CommVault Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.