CNH Industrial Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CNHI
 Stock
  

USD 12.56  0.09  0.71%   

CNH Industrial Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CNH Industrial historical stock prices and determine the direction of CNH Industrial NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CNH Industrial historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CNH Industrial naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of CNH Industrial NV systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CNH Industrial fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current Asset Turnover is estimated to decrease to 0.62. The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to decrease to about 1.7 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 CNH Industrial Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CNH Industrial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest CNH Industrial's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies CNH Industrial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CNH Industrial's open interest, investors have to compare it to CNH Industrial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CNH Industrial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CNH Industrial. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CNH Industrial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CNH Industrial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CNH Industrial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
CNH Industrial polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for CNH Industrial NV as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

CNH Industrial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 13.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CNH Industrial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CNH Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CNH Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CNH IndustrialCNH Industrial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CNH Industrial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CNH Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CNH Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.79 and 17.05, respectively. We have considered CNH Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.56
13.92
Expected Value
17.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CNH Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CNH Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.8586
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4163
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0323
SAESum of the absolute errors25.3966
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the CNH Industrial historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for CNH Industrial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNH Industrial NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CNH Industrial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CNH Industrial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.4212.5515.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.4614.5917.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.8111.9713.14
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0019.0022.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CNH Industrial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CNH Industrial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CNH Industrial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CNH Industrial NV.

Other Forecasting Options for CNH Industrial

For every potential investor in CNH Industrial, whether a beginner or expert, CNH Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CNH Industrial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CNH Industrial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CNH Industrial's price trends.

CNH Industrial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CNH Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CNH Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CNH Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Starbucks Corp3M CompanyJP Morgan ChaseHome DepotBoeing CompanyWalt DisneyInternational BusinessWalmartAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CNH Industrial NV Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CNH Industrial's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CNH Industrial's current price.

CNH Industrial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CNH Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CNH Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CNH Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CNH Industrial NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CNH Industrial Risk Indicators

The analysis of CNH Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CNH Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting CNH Industrial stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in CNH Industrial without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with CNH Industrial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CNH Industrial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CNH Industrial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with CNH Industrial

0.89DEDeere Company Fiscal Year End 23rd of November 2022 PairCorr
0.7ABMABM Industries Fiscal Year End 21st of December 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CNH Industrial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CNH Industrial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CNH Industrial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CNH Industrial NV to buy it.
The correlation of CNH Industrial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CNH Industrial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CNH Industrial NV moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CNH Industrial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections. Note that the CNH Industrial NV information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CNH Industrial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for CNH Industrial Stock analysis

When running CNH Industrial NV price analysis, check to measure CNH Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CNH Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of CNH Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CNH Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CNH Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CNH Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CNH Industrial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNH Industrial. If investors know CNH Industrial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CNH Industrial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.21
Market Capitalization
17 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
0.0384
Return On Equity
0.3
The market value of CNH Industrial NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CNH Industrial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CNH Industrial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CNH Industrial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CNH Industrial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CNH Industrial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CNH Industrial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CNH Industrial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CNH Industrial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.