China Merchants OTC Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CIHHF
 Stock
  

USD 3.45  0.00  0.00%   

China OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Merchants historical stock prices and determine the direction of China Merchants Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of China Merchants historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Merchants to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in China Merchants cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the China Merchants' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets China Merchants' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for China Merchants works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

China Merchants Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Merchants Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 3.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Merchants OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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China Merchants Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Merchants' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.45 and 3.45, respectively. We have considered China Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 3.45
3.45
Expected Value
3.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Merchants otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Merchants otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
When China Merchants Bank prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any China Merchants Bank trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent China Merchants observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for China Merchants

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Merchants Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Merchants in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.173.456.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.163.296.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.453.453.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Merchants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Merchants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Merchants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Merchants Bank.

Other Forecasting Options for China Merchants

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Merchants' price trends.

China Merchants Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Merchants otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Bright Lights AcquisitionPNC BankBRASIL ON NMBRADESCO PN EJAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt Bond
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Merchants Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Merchants' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Merchants' current price.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Merchants in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Merchants' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Merchants options trading.

Pair Trading with China Merchants

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Merchants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Merchants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Merchants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Merchants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Merchants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Merchants Bank to buy it.
The correlation of China Merchants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Merchants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Merchants Bank moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Merchants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Merchants to cross-verify your projections. Note that the China Merchants Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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When running China Merchants Bank price analysis, check to measure China Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of China Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between China Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Merchants value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.