China Merchants OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CIHHF
 Stock
  

USD 5.30  0.00  0.00%   

China OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Merchants historical stock prices and determine the direction of China Merchants Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of China Merchants historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Merchants to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in China Merchants cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the China Merchants' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets China Merchants' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for China Merchants is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of China Merchants Bank value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

China Merchants Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Merchants Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.017046, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Merchants OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest China MerchantsChina Merchants Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

China Merchants Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Merchants' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.49 and 7.29, respectively. We have considered China Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 5.30
5.39
Expected Value
7.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Merchants otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Merchants otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.0387
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0806
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors4.9148
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of China Merchants Bank. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict China Merchants. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for China Merchants

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Merchants Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Merchants in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3.395.307.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.834.746.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Merchants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Merchants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Merchants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Merchants Bank.

Other Forecasting Options for China Merchants

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Merchants' price trends.

China Merchants Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Merchants otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sigma Lithium CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Merchants Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Merchants' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Merchants' current price.

China Merchants Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting China Merchants stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in China Merchants without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Technical Analysis Now

   

Technical Analysis

Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with China Merchants

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Merchants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Merchants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against China Merchants

-0.75FDSFactset Research Systems Fiscal Year End 27th of September 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Merchants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Merchants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Merchants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Merchants Bank to buy it.
The correlation of China Merchants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Merchants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Merchants Bank moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Merchants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Merchants to cross-verify your projections. Note that the China Merchants Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

Complementary Tools for China OTC Stock analysis

When running China Merchants Bank price analysis, check to measure China Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of China Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Is China Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Merchants. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of China Merchants Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Merchants value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.