Chewy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CHWY
 Stock
  

USD 37.19  2.47  7.11%   

Chewy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Chewy historical stock prices and determine the direction of Chewy Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Chewy historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Chewy naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Chewy Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Chewy fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chewy to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 4.95 in 2022. Chewy Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Chewy reported Weighted Average Shares of 417.22 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 433.9 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop slightly above 316.8 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-01 Chewy Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Chewy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Chewy's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Chewy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Chewy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Chewy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Chewy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Chewy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Chewy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Chewy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Chewy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Chewy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Chewy Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Chewy Inc Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Chewy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Chewy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chewy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chewy Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Chewy's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Chewy's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Chewy's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Chewy.

Chewy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Chewy Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 38.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33, mean absolute percentage error of 3.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.03. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chewy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chewy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Chewy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ChewyChewy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Chewy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Chewy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chewy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.37 and 45.42, respectively. We have considered Chewy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 37.19
38.90
Expected Value
45.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chewy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chewy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2101
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3283
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0432
SAESum of the absolute errors81.0272
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Chewy Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Chewy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Chewy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chewy Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chewy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chewy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
30.2636.7543.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
33.2248.8655.35
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
55.0086.31133.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.13-0.070.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chewy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chewy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chewy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chewy Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Chewy

For every potential investor in Chewy, whether a beginner or expert, Chewy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chewy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chewy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chewy's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chewy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chewy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chewy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Chewy Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Chewy's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Chewy's current price.

Chewy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chewy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chewy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chewy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chewy Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Chewy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Chewy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chewy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Chewy stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Chewy Investors Sentiment

The influence of Chewy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Chewy. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Chewy Implied Volatility

    
  107.99  
Chewy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Chewy Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chewy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chewy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chewy's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Chewy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Chewy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Chewy options trading.

Current Sentiment - CHWY

Chewy Inc Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their opinion about investing in Chewy Inc. What is your opinion about investing in Chewy Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish

Pair Trading with Chewy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Chewy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Chewy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Chewy Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Chewy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Chewy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Chewy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Chewy Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Chewy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Chewy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Chewy Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Chewy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chewy to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Chewy Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Chewy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running Chewy Inc price analysis, check to measure Chewy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chewy is operating at the current time. Most of Chewy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chewy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chewy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chewy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chewy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chewy. If investors know Chewy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chewy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.56
Market Capitalization
14.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
-0.0283
Return On Equity
-1.47
The market value of Chewy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chewy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chewy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chewy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chewy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chewy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chewy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chewy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chewy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.