Compania Cervecerias Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CCU
 Stock
  

USD 10.78  0.20  1.89%   

Compania Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Compania Cervecerias historical stock prices and determine the direction of Compania Cervecerias Unidas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Compania Cervecerias historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compania Cervecerias to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Compania Cervecerias cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Compania Cervecerias' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Compania Cervecerias' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Compania Cervecerias - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Compania Cervecerias prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Compania Cervecerias price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Compania Cervecerias.

Compania Cervecerias Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compania Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compania Cervecerias' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Compania Cervecerias Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Compania CerveceriasCompania Cervecerias Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Compania Cervecerias Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Compania Cervecerias' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compania Cervecerias' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.42 and 13.59, respectively. We have considered Compania Cervecerias' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 10.78
11.01
Expected Value
13.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compania Cervecerias stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compania Cervecerias stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0453
MADMean absolute deviation0.2252
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0206
SAESum of the absolute errors13.2864
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Compania Cervecerias observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Compania Cervecerias Unidas observations.

Predictive Modules for Compania Cervecerias

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compania Cervecerias. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Compania Cervecerias' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Compania Cervecerias in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.1810.7613.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.1112.6915.27
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.3018.4018.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Compania Cervecerias. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Compania Cervecerias' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Compania Cervecerias' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Compania Cervecerias.

Other Forecasting Options for Compania Cervecerias

For every potential investor in Compania, whether a beginner or expert, Compania Cervecerias' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compania Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compania. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compania Cervecerias' price trends.

Compania Cervecerias Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compania Cervecerias stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compania Cervecerias could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compania Cervecerias by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Compania Cervecerias Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Compania Cervecerias' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Compania Cervecerias' current price.

Compania Cervecerias Risk Indicators

The analysis of Compania Cervecerias' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compania Cervecerias' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Compania Cervecerias stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Compania Cervecerias in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Compania Cervecerias' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Compania Cervecerias options trading.

Pair Trading with Compania Cervecerias

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Compania Cervecerias position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Compania Cervecerias will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Compania Cervecerias could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Compania Cervecerias when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Compania Cervecerias - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Compania Cervecerias Unidas to buy it.
The correlation of Compania Cervecerias is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Compania Cervecerias moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Compania Cervecerias moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Compania Cervecerias can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compania Cervecerias to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Compania Cervecerias information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Compania Cervecerias' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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Is Compania Cervecerias' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Compania Cervecerias. If investors know Compania will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Compania Cervecerias listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Compania Cervecerias is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Compania that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Compania Cervecerias' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Compania Cervecerias' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Compania Cervecerias' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Compania Cervecerias' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Compania Cervecerias' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Compania Cervecerias value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Compania Cervecerias' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.