Compania Cervecerias Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CCU
 Stock
  

USD 11.21  0.16  1.45%   

Compania Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Compania Cervecerias historical stock prices and determine the direction of Compania Cervecerias Unidas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Compania Cervecerias historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Compania Cervecerias naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Compania Cervecerias Unidas systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Compania Cervecerias fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compania Cervecerias to cross-verify your projections.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.96 in 2022. Weighted Average Shares is likely to gain to about 429.5 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop slightly above 292.3 B in 2022.
Most investors in Compania Cervecerias cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Compania Cervecerias' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Compania Cervecerias' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Compania Cervecerias is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Compania Cervecerias Unidas value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Compania Cervecerias Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compania Cervecerias Unidas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compania Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compania Cervecerias' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Compania Cervecerias Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Compania CerveceriasCompania Cervecerias Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Compania Cervecerias Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Compania Cervecerias' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compania Cervecerias' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.40 and 12.84, respectively. We have considered Compania Cervecerias' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.21
11.12
Expected Value
12.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compania Cervecerias stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compania Cervecerias stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5236
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2396
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0194
SAESum of the absolute errors14.6175
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Compania Cervecerias Unidas. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Compania Cervecerias. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Compania Cervecerias

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compania Cervecerias. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Compania Cervecerias' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Compania Cervecerias in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.4211.1612.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.0913.1814.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.3211.6112.89
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.3018.4018.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Compania Cervecerias. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Compania Cervecerias' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Compania Cervecerias' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Compania Cervecerias.

Other Forecasting Options for Compania Cervecerias

For every potential investor in Compania, whether a beginner or expert, Compania Cervecerias' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compania Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compania. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compania Cervecerias' price trends.

Compania Cervecerias Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compania Cervecerias stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compania Cervecerias could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compania Cervecerias by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alphabet Cl AGeneral ElectricCisco SystemsJP Morgan ChasePfizer IncBoeing CompanyJohnson JohnsonMerck CompanyBank Of AmericaAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Compania Cervecerias Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Compania Cervecerias' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Compania Cervecerias' current price.

Compania Cervecerias Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compania Cervecerias stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compania Cervecerias shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compania Cervecerias stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compania Cervecerias Unidas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Compania Cervecerias Risk Indicators

The analysis of Compania Cervecerias' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compania Cervecerias' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Compania Cervecerias stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Compania Cervecerias without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Compania Cervecerias

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Compania Cervecerias position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Compania Cervecerias will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Compania Cervecerias

0.75ACIAlbertsons Companies Downward RallyPairCorr
0.92ALCOAlico Inc Fiscal Year End 6th of December 2022 PairCorr

Moving against Compania Cervecerias

0.86BJBjs Wholesale Club Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
0.82BYNDBeyond Meat Normal TradingPairCorr
0.82EDUNew Oriental Education Fiscal Year End 23rd of September 2022 PairCorr
0.81ATGEAdtalem Global Education Fiscal Year End 18th of August 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Compania Cervecerias could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Compania Cervecerias when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Compania Cervecerias - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Compania Cervecerias Unidas to buy it.
The correlation of Compania Cervecerias is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Compania Cervecerias moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Compania Cervecerias moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Compania Cervecerias can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compania Cervecerias to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Compania Cervecerias information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Compania Cervecerias' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Compania Stock analysis

When running Compania Cervecerias price analysis, check to measure Compania Cervecerias' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Compania Cervecerias is operating at the current time. Most of Compania Cervecerias' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Compania Cervecerias' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Compania Cervecerias' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Compania Cervecerias to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Compania Cervecerias' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Compania Cervecerias. If investors know Compania will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Compania Cervecerias listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.85
Market Capitalization
2.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.19
Return On Assets
0.0629
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Compania Cervecerias is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Compania that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Compania Cervecerias' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Compania Cervecerias' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Compania Cervecerias' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Compania Cervecerias' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Compania Cervecerias' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Compania Cervecerias value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Compania Cervecerias' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.