CalAmp Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CAMP
 Stock
  

USD 3.27  0.20  5.76%   

CalAmp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CalAmp Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of CalAmp Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CalAmp Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CalAmp Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of CalAmp Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CalAmp Corp fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CalAmp Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
CalAmp Corp PPandE Turnover is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. CalAmp Corp reported last year PPandE Turnover of 7.51. As of 7th of December 2022, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 5.05, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 7.78. . As of 7th of December 2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to grow to about 36.3 M. Also, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 36.3 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 CalAmp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CalAmp Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest CalAmp Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies CalAmp Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CalAmp Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to CalAmp Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CalAmp Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CalAmp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CalAmp Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CalAmp Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CalAmp Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for CalAmp Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CalAmp Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CalAmp Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CalAmp Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 3.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.046285, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CalAmp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CalAmp Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CalAmp Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CalAmp CorpCalAmp Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CalAmp Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CalAmp Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CalAmp Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0327 and 7.86, respectively. We have considered CalAmp Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 3.27
0.0327
Downside
3.32
Expected Value
7.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CalAmp Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CalAmp Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.8754
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1768
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0463
SAESum of the absolute errors10.9591
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CalAmp Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CalAmp Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CalAmp Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CalAmp Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CalAmp Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CalAmp Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.163.117.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.275.7810.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.193.543.88
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0013.6016.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CalAmp Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CalAmp Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CalAmp Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CalAmp Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for CalAmp Corp

For every potential investor in CalAmp, whether a beginner or expert, CalAmp Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CalAmp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CalAmp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CalAmp Corp's price trends.

CalAmp Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CalAmp Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CalAmp Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CalAmp Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Dupont De NemoursFidelity MSCI EnergyBondbloxx ETF TrustMerck CompanyVANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTHAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CalAmp Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CalAmp Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CalAmp Corp's current price.

CalAmp Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of CalAmp Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CalAmp Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting CalAmp Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in CalAmp Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Risk-Return Analysis

View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
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Pair Trading with CalAmp Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CalAmp Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CalAmp Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with CalAmp Corp

+0.71AAPLApple Inc Aggressive PushPairCorr

Moving against CalAmp Corp

-0.59PPERYBank Mandiri Persero Normal TradingPairCorr
-0.53CHRDChord Energy Corp Symbol ChangePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to CalAmp Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CalAmp Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CalAmp Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CalAmp Corp to buy it.
The correlation of CalAmp Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CalAmp Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CalAmp Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CalAmp Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CalAmp Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running CalAmp Corp price analysis, check to measure CalAmp Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CalAmp Corp is operating at the current time. Most of CalAmp Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CalAmp Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CalAmp Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CalAmp Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CalAmp Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CalAmp Corp. If investors know CalAmp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CalAmp Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
128.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.08) 
Return On Assets
(0.0368) 
Return On Equity
(0.70) 
The market value of CalAmp Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CalAmp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CalAmp Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CalAmp Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CalAmp Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CalAmp Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CalAmp Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CalAmp Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CalAmp Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.