Continental Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CAL
 Stock
  

USD 27.55  0.61  2.17%   

Continental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Continental historical stock prices and determine the direction of Caleres's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Continental historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Continental naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Caleres systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Continental fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Continental to cross-verify your projections.
  
Continental Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 1.92. Continental Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 43.08 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 41.8 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to rise to (10.8 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Continental Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Continental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Continental's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Continental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Continental's open interest, investors have to compare it to Continental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Continental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Continental. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Continental cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Continental's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Continental's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Continental polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Caleres as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Continental Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Caleres on the next trading day is expected to be 27.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Continental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Continental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Continental Stock Forecast Pattern

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Continental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Continental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Continental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.04 and 32.51, respectively. We have considered Continental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 27.55
27.27
Expected Value
32.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Continental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Continental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6922
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0252
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0399
SAESum of the absolute errors62.54
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Continental historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Continental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Continental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Continental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Continental in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.4727.7132.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.4730.7135.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.2226.3728.51
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
30.0035.0040.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Continental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Continental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Continental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Continental.

Other Forecasting Options for Continental

For every potential investor in Continental, whether a beginner or expert, Continental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Continental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Continental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Continental's price trends.

Continental Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Continental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Continental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Continental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
ContinentalCoca-ColaMcDonalds CorpHP IncBoeing CompanyProcter GambleAlcoa CorpThe Travelers CompaniesCisco SystemsMicrosoft CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 Covered
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Continental Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Continental's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Continental's current price.

Continental Risk Indicators

The analysis of Continental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Continental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Continental stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Continental without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Continental

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Continental position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Continental will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Continental could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Continental when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Continental - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Caleres to buy it.
The correlation of Continental is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Continental moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Continental moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Continental can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Continental to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Continental information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Continental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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Is Continental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Continental. If investors know Continental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Continental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
7.25
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
0.0859
Return On Equity
0.64
The market value of Continental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Continental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Continental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Continental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Continental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Continental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Continental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Continental value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Continental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.