Continental Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CAL
 Stock
  

USD 24.60  0.38  1.57%   

Continental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Continental historical stock prices and determine the direction of Caleres's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Continental historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Continental to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Continental Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Continental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Continental's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Continental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Continental's open interest, investors have to compare it to Continental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Continental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Continental. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Continental cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Continental's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Continental's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Continental is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Caleres value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Continental Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Caleres on the next trading day is expected to be 24.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 1.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Continental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Continental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Continental Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ContinentalContinental Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Continental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Continental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Continental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.34 and 28.48, respectively. We have considered Continental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 24.60
24.91
Expected Value
28.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Continental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Continental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6183
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0779
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0404
SAESum of the absolute errors65.7515
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Caleres. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Continental. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Continental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Continental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Continental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Continental in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.0324.6028.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
24.2627.8331.40
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
30.0035.0040.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Continental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Continental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Continental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Continental.

Other Forecasting Options for Continental

For every potential investor in Continental, whether a beginner or expert, Continental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Continental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Continental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Continental's price trends.

Continental Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Continental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Continental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Continental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Continental Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Continental's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Continental's current price.

Continental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Continental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Continental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Continental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caleres entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Continental Risk Indicators

The analysis of Continental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Continental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Continental stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Continental Implied Volatility

    
  4.02  
Continental's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caleres stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Continental's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Continental stock will not fluctuate a lot when Continental's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Continental in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Continental's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Continental options trading.

Pair Trading with Continental

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Continental position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Continental will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Continental could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Continental when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Continental - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Caleres to buy it.
The correlation of Continental is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Continental moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Continental moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Continental can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Continental to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Continental information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Continental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Continental Stock analysis

When running Continental price analysis, check to measure Continental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Continental is operating at the current time. Most of Continental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Continental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Continental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Continental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Bond Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Is Continental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Continental. If investors know Continental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Continental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Continental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Continental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Continental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Continental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Continental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Continental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Continental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Continental value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Continental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.