Cardinal Health Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CAH
 Stock
  

USD 68.80  0.31  0.45%   

Cardinal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cardinal Health historical stock prices and determine the direction of Cardinal Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Cardinal Health historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cardinal Health naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Cardinal Health systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cardinal Health fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cardinal Health to cross-verify your projections.
  
Cardinal Health Inventory Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Inventory Turnover was reported at 12.88. The current Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated to increase to 9.05, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 60.48. . Cardinal Health Weighted Average Shares is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Weighted Average Shares was reported at 279 Million. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 281 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease to (1 B).
Most investors in Cardinal Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cardinal Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cardinal Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Cardinal Health polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Cardinal Health as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Cardinal Health Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Cardinal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 71.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cardinal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cardinal Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cardinal Health Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cardinal HealthCardinal Health Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cardinal Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cardinal Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cardinal Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.44 and 72.58, respectively. We have considered Cardinal Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 68.80
71.01
Expected Value
72.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cardinal Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cardinal Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3959
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8617
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0151
SAESum of the absolute errors52.5638
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Cardinal Health historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Cardinal Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cardinal Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cardinal Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cardinal Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
62.0170.8972.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
65.5267.0975.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
53.0262.2071.38
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0057.5064.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cardinal Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cardinal Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cardinal Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cardinal Health.

Other Forecasting Options for Cardinal Health

For every potential investor in Cardinal, whether a beginner or expert, Cardinal Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cardinal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cardinal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cardinal Health's price trends.

Cardinal Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cardinal Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cardinal Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cardinal Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Charles SchwabCisco SystemsProcter GambleDupont DenemoursMerck CompanyMcDonalds CorpInternational BusinessVerizon CommunicationsATT IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cardinal Health Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cardinal Health's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cardinal Health's current price.

Cardinal Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cardinal Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cardinal Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cardinal Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cardinal Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cardinal Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cardinal Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cardinal Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Cardinal Health stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Cardinal Health Investors Sentiment

The influence of Cardinal Health's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Cardinal. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Cardinal Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Cardinal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cardinal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cardinal Health. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Cardinal Health's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Cardinal Health's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Cardinal Health's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Cardinal Health.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cardinal Health in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cardinal Health's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cardinal Health options trading.

Pair Trading with Cardinal Health

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cardinal Health position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cardinal Health will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Cardinal Health

0.8AAgilent Technologies Fiscal Year End 28th of November 2022 PairCorr

Moving against Cardinal Health

0.85ACURAcura Pharma Cmn Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
0.72DLADelta Apparel Fiscal Year End 17th of November 2022 PairCorr
0.72VZVerizon Communications TrendingPairCorr
0.6AGTCApplied Genetic Tech Fiscal Year End 22nd of September 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cardinal Health could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cardinal Health when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cardinal Health - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cardinal Health to buy it.
The correlation of Cardinal Health is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cardinal Health moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cardinal Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cardinal Health can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cardinal Health to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Cardinal Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cardinal Health's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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Is Cardinal Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cardinal Health. If investors know Cardinal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cardinal Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Cardinal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cardinal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cardinal Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cardinal Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cardinal Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cardinal Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cardinal Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cardinal Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cardinal Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.