ConAgra Foods Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CAG
 Stock
  

USD 38.23  0.67  1.78%   

ConAgra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ConAgra Foods historical stock prices and determine the direction of ConAgra Foods's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ConAgra Foods historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although ConAgra Foods naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of ConAgra Foods systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ConAgra Foods fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ConAgra Foods to cross-verify your projections.
  
ConAgra Foods Receivables Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 13.93. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 5.34, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is forecasted to decline to 13.67. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 509.3 M. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 510.9 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 ConAgra Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ConAgra Foods' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest ConAgra Foods' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies ConAgra Foods stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ConAgra Foods' open interest, investors have to compare it to ConAgra Foods' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ConAgra Foods is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ConAgra. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ConAgra Foods cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ConAgra Foods' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ConAgra Foods' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ConAgra Foods is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ConAgra Foods value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ConAgra Foods Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ConAgra Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 39.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ConAgra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ConAgra Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ConAgra Foods Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ConAgra FoodsConAgra Foods Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ConAgra Foods Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ConAgra Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ConAgra Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.37 and 41.11, respectively. We have considered ConAgra Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 38.23
39.74
Expected Value
41.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ConAgra Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ConAgra Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.259
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5188
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0148
SAESum of the absolute errors31.6455
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ConAgra Foods. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ConAgra Foods. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ConAgra Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ConAgra Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConAgra Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ConAgra Foods in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
37.0038.3739.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.4440.4241.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
35.2737.1639.05
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
35.0037.4342.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConAgra Foods. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConAgra Foods' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConAgra Foods' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ConAgra Foods.

Other Forecasting Options for ConAgra Foods

For every potential investor in ConAgra, whether a beginner or expert, ConAgra Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ConAgra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ConAgra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ConAgra Foods' price trends.

ConAgra Foods Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ConAgra Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ConAgra Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ConAgra Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aramark HoldingsStarbucksGoldman Sachs GroupCOMSovereign Holding CorpWalmartATT IncCisco SystemsThe Travelers CompaniesAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ConAgra Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ConAgra Foods' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ConAgra Foods' current price.

ConAgra Foods Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ConAgra Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ConAgra Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ConAgra Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ConAgra Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ConAgra Foods Risk Indicators

The analysis of ConAgra Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ConAgra Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ConAgra Foods stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

ConAgra Foods Investors Sentiment

The influence of ConAgra Foods' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in ConAgra. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to ConAgra Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in ConAgra. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ConAgra can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ConAgra Foods. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
ConAgra Foods' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for ConAgra Foods' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average ConAgra Foods' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on ConAgra Foods.

ConAgra Foods Implied Volatility

    
  28.92  
ConAgra Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ConAgra Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ConAgra Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ConAgra Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when ConAgra Foods' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ConAgra Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ConAgra Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ConAgra Foods options trading.

Pair Trading with ConAgra Foods

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ConAgra Foods position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ConAgra Foods will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ConAgra Foods

+0.93CPBCampbell Soup Buyout TrendPairCorr
+0.67HRLHormel Foods Fiscal Year End 8th of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.81SYYSysco Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ConAgra Foods could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ConAgra Foods when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ConAgra Foods - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ConAgra Foods to buy it.
The correlation of ConAgra Foods is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ConAgra Foods moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ConAgra Foods moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ConAgra Foods can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ConAgra Foods to cross-verify your projections. Note that the ConAgra Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ConAgra Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

Complementary Tools for ConAgra Stock analysis

When running ConAgra Foods price analysis, check to measure ConAgra Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConAgra Foods is operating at the current time. Most of ConAgra Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConAgra Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConAgra Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConAgra Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ConAgra Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConAgra Foods. If investors know ConAgra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConAgra Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.48) 
Market Capitalization
18 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.095
Return On Assets
0.0453
Return On Equity
0.0668
The market value of ConAgra Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConAgra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConAgra Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConAgra Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConAgra Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConAgra Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConAgra Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ConAgra Foods value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConAgra Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.